Friday, April 30

PGG MARKET REPORT
by
PGG Country
on Fri 30 Apr 2010 09:35 AM PDT
Morrow County Grain Growers Pendleton Grain Growers
Duane Disque or Brian Peiler Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 4/ 30 / 10
|
|
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn |
|
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
|
May |
4.90 |
|
6.73 |
1.40 |
5.54 |
.40 |
120 |
149 |
|
June |
4.95 |
|
6.73 |
1.40 |
5.44 |
.38 |
120 |
|
|
|
July |
4.95 |
5.00 CNW |
6.53 |
1.20 |
5.44 |
.38 |
|
|
|
|
August |
4.95 |
|
6.49 |
1.05 |
5.55 |
.30 |
|
|
|
September |
4.98 |
5.16 CUW |
6.46 |
1.03 |
5.60 |
.35 |
|
|
|
October |
5.00 |
|
6.44 |
1.03 |
|
|
|
151 |
|
Nov/ Dec |
5.05 ish |
5.42 CZW |
|
|
|
|
|
152 |
|
N/C 2011 |
|
6.12 CUW |
6.70 |
.60 |
6.10 |
.20 KUW |
|
2011/ 160 |
|
|
N/C 2012 |
|
6.62 CUW |
|
|
|
|
|
2012/ 161 |
|
|
**Club premium: Buyers Call! |
Prem/Disc |
+25/ -30 |
Prem/ Disc |
+15/ -20 |
Canola: |
.143/ lb |
|
***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.
Futures opened higher, initially. Wheat gave up early gains, are currently down 2-4. Corn is still clinging to positive territory, up 2. Even with a weaker $, and too much rain in the Delta?that info is being tempered by corn planting progress expected to hit an amazing 75-80% on Monday?s crop progress report. So far for the week, May futures have given up .19 from early Monday morning trade. Though there was lots of activity, the market never recovered from the 4000 cak lot that drove the markets lower early Monday. We have already had 1500 contracts delivered against the Chicago May. Corn on the other hand has gradually built a nice .10 gain on the week. We are trading at critical resistance levels. If the July can trade through $3.71 then we can take the next leg up. Specs are now estimated to be nearly even in Chicago Corn, and still a bit long in wheat (but not in the May slot).
Interesting news from Washington this morning?remember the cotton WTO case that was brought against us by Brazil (which they won)? US negotiators agreed to PAY Brazil $147 myn to NOT retaliate. Essentially we will also pay our cotton subsidies to the Brazilian growers?every year until the new Farm Bill is written. Taxpayers will love that one?.
World Weather: US: Midwest will be wet, Northern plains will be windy and cold (we know what that feels like), Southern plains will be cold with some concern that it could impact flowering. One benefit of cool/ cold weather is that it has kept disease in check, but crop that was estimated to be ahead of normal, is now rated 7-10 days behind. Canadian prairies will be cool/ wet with snow. Soil profiles are adequate to adequate +. China: North will be cold and dry, the NE will be a bit warmer but also dry (they NEED rain). Central China will be cool/ wet?but it could actually freeze there). WA is still very dry. More showers will be spread across Victoria/ NSW. W Europe will see good rains (they had been very dry) timing would be excellent for them. SAM weather continues to be overall ?GOOD? for crops. Brazil is now estimating Bean production at over 67 myn mt. Space for corn/ beans are already VERY tight. When 2nd corn harvest starts in July, lack of storage could be a MAJOR issue (they estimate they are short some 15 myn mt (590 myn bu) of storage space for this years crops. All in all we have typical ?spring weather nuisance? problems but nothing major any where in the world. Overall trend seems to be cooler which not only slows maturity, but helps with droughty conditions.
HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!!!
***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***
Thursday, April 29

PGG MARKET REPORT
by
PGG Country
on Thu 29 Apr 2010 09:59 AM PDT
Morrow County Grain Growers Pendleton Grain Growers
Duane Disque or Brian Peiler Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 4/ 29 / 10
|
|
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn |
|
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
|
May |
4.95 |
|
6.86 |
1.40 |
5.57 |
.40 |
120 |
148 |
|
June |
4.95 |
|
6.86/ 80 |
1.40 |
5.55 |
.38 |
120 |
|
|
|
July |
4.95 |
5.04 CNW |
6.72/ 57 |
1.35/ 15 |
5.55 |
.38 |
|
|
|
|
August |
4.95 |
|
6.51 |
1.05 |
5.58 |
.30 |
|
|
|
September |
4.95 |
5.19 CUW |
6.50 |
1.03 |
5.63 |
.35 |
|
|
|
October |
5.05 |
|
6.57 |
1.03 |
|
|
|
150 |
|
Nov/ Dec |
5.05 ish |
5.48 CZW |
|
|
|
|
|
151 |
|
N/C 2011 |
|
6.20 CUW |
6.74 |
.60 |
5.98 |
.20 KUW |
|
2011/ 158 |
|
|
N/C 2012 |
|
6.68 CUW |
|
|
|
|
|
2012/ 160 |
|
|
**Club premium: Buyers Call! |
Prem/Disc |
+25/ -30 |
Prem/ Disc |
+15/ -20 |
Canola: |
.143/ lb |
|
***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.
Futures were called up 1-3, but opened VERY STRONG up 15 to 16 in wheats and up 6-8 in corn. FND is Friday, and specs still have some shorts to cover. Only substantial fundamental news was that China was rumored to have bought an additional 11.8 myn bu of corn, and the market is hoping for more. Other than that it really just boils down to spec short covering before the end of the month. Portland SWW values traded at $5 briefly before hitting LOTS of sell orders and backing off quickly. Export sales report showed very solid corn sales at 45 myn bu, while wheat was weak with only 6.4 myn bu of old crop and 10.8 myn of new crop sales. The lastest Chinese corn purchases would NOT have been reflected in this report, so next week is looking VERY good for the corn sales report. A former trader for MF Global was charged with fraud resulting in $141 myn in losses from back in ?08.
Lots of news from around the globe as countries are trying hard to secure long term grain supplies or food security. Chinese Ag Development Group Corp will spend $2 byn in Brazil working toward securing grain supplies. By the way did you realize that today only about 49% of all Chinese Ag is ?mechanized?? The rest is done by hand. Japan?s Marubeni will buy 1.8 myn bu of Russian wheat by this time next year. If things go well they have agreed to buy up to 14.7 myn bu of Russian wheat over next 3 years, and will co-finance the cost of Russian grain terminal that will serve the Far East. 10,000 French farmers with 1300 tractors shut down Paris protesting low cereal prices. This is as talks of capping/ cutting ag subsidies draws more attention, and what appears to be a bumper wheat crop in the fields of France. The French know a thing or two about being hungry, and I expect they will vigorously defend AG, however the French gov?t wants growers to reduce pesticide use by ? by 2018 or label them as ?polluters?. Saudi Arabia ?the land with no rivers or lakes? continues to search for a long term solution to food security (yes the food for oil debate is back in play). They expect a population growth rate of 77% by 2050 and food security is now the #1 priority. They are looking for ?land rich/ cash poor? countries to partner with to develop ag (think Sudan, Ethiopia, Vietnam, Ukraine). They already have 1.2 myn acre land development project in Ethiopia.
Obama seems to be on the campaign trail. He was in Iowa talking about tripling the amount of ethanol in the US within 12 years. It will cost money, lots of it.
***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***
Wednesday, April 28

PGG MARKET REPORT
by
PGG Country
on Wed 28 Apr 2010 11:41 AM PDT
|
Morrow County Grain Growers |
|
Pendleton Grain Growers |
|
|
|
Duane Disque Or Brian Peiler |
|
Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson |
|
|
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 |
|
1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611 |
|
|
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (work), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net |
|
|
|
|
|
|
GOOD MORNING!! |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Below are the best indications available as of: |
9:00 |
4/ 28 /10 |
|
|
| |
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn |
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
|
|
May |
4.85 |
|
6.66 |
1.40 |
5.40 |
.38 |
120 |
143 |
|
|
June |
4.85 |
|
6.66 |
1.40 |
5.40 |
.38 |
120 |
|
|
|
July |
4.85 |
4.88 CNW |
6.46 |
1.20 |
5.40 |
.38 |
120 |
|
|
|
August |
4.90 |
|
6.44 |
1.05 |
5.48 |
.30 |
|
|
|
|
September |
4.95 |
5.04 CUW |
6.42 |
1.03 |
5.55 |
.35 |
|
|
|
|
October |
5.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
146 |
|
|
Nov/ Dec |
5.05 ish |
5.32 CZW |
|
|
|
|
|
147 |
|
|
N/C 2011 |
|
6.05 CUW |
6.67 |
.60 |
6.04 |
.20 |
|
2011/ 155 |
|
|
N/C 2012 |
|
6.54 CUW |
|
+20/ -30 |
|
+15/ -20 |
|
2012/ 157 |
|
|
***Club premium: $Call!! B/C |
|
MSTOS |
CANOLA: |
.143/ lb |
|
|
|
*** NOTE: Corn bids vary depending on point of delivery. Please Call for Updates.
A weaker $ was helpful early on, as we saw all the grains trading in positive territory. Corn got an additional boost from an announcement that China booked a couple cargoes of US corn (about 3.6 myn bu). The corn pit responded positively to the news and is hoping for more. The dry weather (not sure if anyone is willing to call it a drought yet) persists in the northern territories of China. Obviously this would be VERY helpful to US corn prices. At this rate we will take a ‘spring rally’ from where it needs to…if it is based on dry weather in China, so be it! We won’t be picky. SWW values have been VERY steady while the futures have seen some pretty wild swings…just provides some opportunity. Booking the rallies on the board is still the best strategy. Weather man says the next 6-10 forecast has the WCB ‘below average’ precip, while the ECB will see ‘above average’.
USDA says that insurance companies have averaged a 17% rate of return on Federal crop insurance the last few years, and say that, that is unreasonably high. They will likely send a suggest that Fed crop insurance subsidies be trimmed/ cut. The very nature of Ag is that you will have cycles, and while it might be a nice thought to try to ‘smooth’ things out…unless you can control the weather and myriad of other factors, it is just that, a nice thought.
Canadian durum acres will be down 35% this year, with most of those acres joining the ‘Canola’ base. Planting conditions in NSW (New South Wales) is the "BEST IN YEARS". Many parts of the territory got over ½" over the weekend. Planting continues, but one report said that locusts are becoming a major problem. "As soon as the crop comes up, it gets chewed right back to the ground". Drier weather in Brazil should be seen as market positive. Ukraine is 63% planted vs. 72% last year. South Korea passed on US wheat saying px was too high, and Japan is out till May.
***Didja Know: "Prosopagnosia" also known as ‘face blindness’…or the inability to recognize familiar faces…they use about 42,000 tennis balls at each Wimbledon tennis tournament each year….ever wonder how fast a ‘blink of an eye’ is? Its about .3 seconds….
***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***
Tuesday, April 27

PGG MARKET REPORT
by
PGG Country
on Tue 27 Apr 2010 09:37 AM PDT
Morrow County Grain Growers Pendleton Grain Growers
Duane Disque or Brian Peiler Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 4/ 27 / 10
|
|
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn |
|
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
|
May |
4.85 |
|
6.63 |
1.40 |
5.39 |
.34 |
120 |
143 |
|
June |
4.85 |
|
6.63 |
1.40 |
5.40 |
.35 |
120 |
|
|
|
July |
4.85 |
4.85 CNW |
6.43 |
1.35/ 15 |
5.40 |
.35 |
|
|
|
|
August |
4.85 |
|
6.40 |
1.05 |
5.46 |
.30 |
|
|
|
September |
4.90 |
5.01 CUW |
6.37 |
1.03 |
5.51 |
.35 |
|
|
|
October |
4.95 |
|
6.42 |
1.03 |
|
|
|
145 |
|
Nov/ Dec |
5.05 ish |
5.29 CZW |
|
|
|
|
|
154 |
|
N/C 2011 |
|
5.99 CUW |
6.64 |
.60 |
6.01 |
.20 KUW |
|
2011/ 154 |
|
|
N/C 2012 |
|
6.52 CUW |
|
|
|
|
|
2012/ 157 |
|
|
**Club premium: Buyers Call! |
Prem/Disc |
+25/ -30 |
Prem/ Disc |
+15/ -20 |
Canola: |
.143/ lb |
|
***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.
Wheats opened higher, but it didn?t feel ?strong??.turns out they weren?t. After trading higher the first hour or so, they folded and quickly gave up7-8. Corn never saw ?green grass? all day. The news that 50% of the estimated acres are planted (that means that US farmers planted about 27.5 MILLION acres to corn in 1 WEEK) knocked the horns off the tender young bull, and killed the little rally. Whats more is that the market is thinking in terms of perhaps an additional 3 myn acres of corn may get planted (math works out to be about an extra 500 myn bu of production). 50% planting compares to a 5 year average of only 22% at this time of year. Iowa and Minnesota are rated at 50% complete with 7% emerged. Spring wheat is 43% planted vs. 14% last year and 27% on the 5 year ave. Winter wheat conditions are still rated 69% G-EX with 14% of the crop headed. The winter wheat crop is about a week or 10 days behind. Cool / moist weather is rated ?Good? for crop development/ production. Overnight Egypt did buy 4.7 myn bu of US corn. As pxes drop demand does seem to start to materialize.
Markets are still a bit puzzled over the sudden and dramatic crash in wheat futures yesterday. The best I can find out is that there was a ?Stop loss order? placed at $5. This was a lot of 4000 caks. It is a very big trade, the problem is that apparently it was entered as a ?Stop Loss? which means that when the market dropped down to touch $5 it turned into a Market order?hitting the next 4000 buy orders, wiping them all out. When the dust settled the market went from +14 or so to down ?20. Right now crude is down near $2/ bbl and the equities markets are very nervous about the implications of how/ when/ who/ how much, to aid the ailing Greece, and remember there are 2-3 other countries right behind Greece that will be seeking aid.
Overnight China sold another 41 myn bu of corn from their reserves. The average px was $259/ ton. Although they could buy US corn much cheaper, that isn?t their strategy. Chinese gov?t will pay premiums to local growers to stimulate Ag, they are also keenly aware that pxes need to be kept in check or risk the demand base. Monsoons look to hit India about 10 days early. There doesn?t seem to be any correlation between timing (arrival) of monsoons and their intensity or volume.
***Didja Know: Iowa raises about 18.5% of all US corn? Ill raises about 15.6, and Indiana 7.11 (the ?I? states account for over 40% of US corn production. Minnesota is about 9.5 % and Nebraska is 12%.
***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***
Monday, April 26

PGG MARKET REPORT
by
PGG Country
on Mon 26 Apr 2010 10:38 AM PDT
Morrow County Grain Growers Pendleton Grain Growers
Duane Disque or Brian Peiler Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 4/ 26 / 10
|
|
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn |
|
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
|
May |
4.85 |
|
6.69 |
1.40 |
5.40 |
.34 |
120 |
147 |
|
June |
4.85 |
|
6.69 |
1.40 |
5.41 |
.35 |
120 |
|
|
|
July |
4.85 |
4.93 CNW |
6.64/ 44 |
1.35/ 15 |
5.46 |
.35 |
|
|
|
|
August |
4.85 |
|
6.42 |
1.05 |
5.51 |
.30 |
|
|
|
September |
4.90 |
5.10 CUW |
6.40 |
1.03 |
|
|
|
|
|
October |
4.95 |
|
6.40 |
1.03 |
|
|
|
148 |
|
Nov/ Dec |
5.15 ish |
5.37 CZW |
|
|
|
|
|
148 |
|
N/C 2011 |
|
6.03 CUW |
6.62 |
.60 |
6.01 |
.20 KUW |
|
2011/ 156 |
|
|
N/C 2012 |
|
6.42 CUW |
|
|
|
|
|
2012/ 159 |
|
|
**Club premium: Buyers Call! |
Prem/Disc |
+25/ -30 |
Prem/ Disc |
+15/ -20 |
Canola: |
.143/ lb |
|
***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.
NOTE: We dropped the April and rolled to May this morning!! $ is stronger. Greece needs aid by 5/19 or will default, and the market is nervous. They need 30 to 40 byn Euros the next 3 years just to ?hold things? together?and those funds are seen as ?stop gap? only. Then there are other countries that are not that far behind (Portugal is next). Futures opened higher, but it was brief. The Chicago May traded as high as $5.02 before crashing to $4.79. The markets are off the lows but still down 12 to 14/ bu. Markets tanked when a sell order triggered a lot of 4000 caks.
Specs did actively buy in much of their short positions the last couple weeks. Last week alone they bot back 70 myn bu of Chic wheat, 20 myn bu of KC and 145 myn bu of corn. Great example of a ?short covering? rally. Fundamentals still are not friendly for grains. Planting progress is expected to be about 50% later today. Very good precip for the corn belt, especially in the east. Ethanol margins that were strong the first of the year are now mostly red, and will eventually mean lower corn demand for ethanol. As the summer driving season gears up, ethanol stocks are rated ?burdensome? and Plants are starting to idle production. CME says they will offer a DDG contract. Each contract will cost $1100, with a maintenance/ margin cost of $1,000. Each contract will be for 100 tons of DDG. Shipment report for grains showed weak corn shipments of only 32.8 myn bu and very weak wheat shipments of only 9.8 myn bu (1.8 was SWW).
India says that they are expecting a ?normal monsoon?. The prediction comes with an asterisk as their projections are notoriously unreliable. Last year they predicted a normal monsoon but got the worst drought in 37 years. In this case ?normal? refers to 75-90% of ?Normal? rainfall. Obviously the rainfall is not only important for grain production, but they are heavily reliant upon it for hydro power also. Stats Canada projected for 2010: durum acres will be at 17 year low, record high Canola acres. Spring wheat acres up 7%, all wheat acres down 5%.
Prices have settled down, with futures trading down 16 or so in Chicago, corn off a couple, and KC and Mpls off 11 to 14 cents.
***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***
Thursday, April 22

PGG MARKET REPORT
by
PGG Country
on Thu 22 Apr 2010 09:49 AM PDT
Morrow County Grain Growers Pendleton Grain Growers
Duane Disque or Brian Peiler Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 4/ 22 / 10
|
|
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn |
|
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
|
April |
4.90 |
|
6.87 |
1.50 N |
5.54 |
.34 |
115 |
145 |
|
May |
4.90 |
4.96 CKW |
6.87 |
1.50 N |
5.54 |
.34 |
115 |
|
|
|
June |
4.90 |
|
6.87 |
1.50 |
5.55 |
.35 |
115 |
|
|
|
July |
4.90 |
5.08 CNW |
6.72/ 52 |
1.35/ 15 |
5.55 |
.35 |
|
|
|
August |
4.90 |
|
6.52 |
1.03 |
5.61 |
.30 |
|
|
|
September |
4.95 |
5.24 CUW |
6.52 |
1.03 |
|
|
|
|
|
OND |
5.10 ish |
|
|
|
|
|
|
151 |
|
N/C 2011 |
|
6.18 CUW |
6.75 |
.60 |
6.20 |
.20 KUW |
|
2011/ 160 |
|
|
N/C 2012 |
|
6.75 CUW |
|
|
|
|
|
2012/ 163 |
|
|
**Club premium: Buyers Call! |
Prem/Disc |
+25/ -30 |
Prem/ Disc |
+15/ -20 |
Canola: |
.143/ lb |
|
***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.
US $ was higher on more Greek worries. They understated their deficits and now are facing potentially more downgrades on their credit. Grains all started lower with wheaties down 4-6 and corn off 2-3, by 9:00 wheats were had reversed losses and were up a dime, while corn had worked its way into positive territory. More spec short covering, and perhaps selling opportunities especially in the deferreds. The export sales report for corn was EXCELLENT with a very strong 58.3 myn bu sold, beating USDA numbers by about 20 myn bu. Wheat was totally underwhelming with a total of 17.1 myn bu sold?.and of that total only 6.1 myn bu in the old crop time slot. SWW had net cancellations of 1.4 myn bu in old crop. The only bright spot was that there were good sales in the n/c slots, with 4.9 myn DNS, 1.2 HRW .1 SRW and 4.8 myn SWW sales listed.
Informa released their projections for 2010 production ahead of the USDA 5/11 report. They are estimating a corn crop just beating out last years record production, wheat production down 8%, but with carryouts of over 1 byn bu. The first gov?t estimate of yields for the 2010 crop will also be out on the 5/11 report. One interesting thing: 2004 was the fastest/ earliest the entire US corn crop was ever planted, and held the record for highest yields until last year?when ironically we had the slowest/ latest corn plantings on record. Apparently good growing weather trumps good planting weather?
Argie Ag ministry is now projecting a record bean crop (only surprise is that it took this long), and FWIW they are still projecting a smaller production than the USDA. Overnight we did have private corn sale of 4.7 myn bu of corn to Egypt.
Weather roundup: Excellent planting weather will come to an end late this week as a system rolls across the Midwest, with another system closely following?should slow plantings for a week or so. The Southern Plains will continue to be cool with showers. No hot weather in the forecast, or sudden cold snaps. The Northern plains will get showers that will be a nuisance to plantings, but offer no real delays, and will be more beneficial than harmful. The Canadian prairies will be dry. Heavy rains will continue in Brazil, Argie will be dry. South Africa will be wet and cool. Possible market moving stuff in China: Snow and cold in the Northern plains and threat of freezing temps in central China. Oz will get some light rains. They could use a good ol? fashioned soaking, but that isn?t in the forecast.
***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***
Wednesday, April 21

PGG MARKET REPORT
by
PGG Country
on Wed 21 Apr 2010 11:25 AM PDT
|
Morrow County Grain Growers |
|
Pendleton Grain Growers |
|
|
|
Duane Disque Or Brian Peiler |
|
Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson |
|
|
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 |
|
1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611 |
|
|
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (work), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net |
|
|
|
|
|
|
GOOD MORNING!! |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Below are the best indications available as of: |
9:00 |
4/ 21 /10 |
|
|
| |
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn |
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
|
|
April |
4.85 |
|
6.76 |
1.60 |
5.41 |
.30 N |
115 |
145 |
|
|
May |
4.85 |
4.87 CKW |
6.76 |
1.60 |
5.41 |
.30 N |
115 |
|
|
|
June |
4.85 |
|
6.78 |
1.50 |
5.46 |
.35 N |
115 |
|
|
|
July |
4.90 |
4.99 CNW |
6.63/ 43 |
1.35/ 15 |
5.46 |
.35 N |
|
|
|
|
August |
4.95 |
|
6.45 |
1.05 |
5.54 |
.30 U |
|
|
|
|
September |
5.00 |
5.15 CUW |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
OND est |
5.10 ish |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2010/ 152 |
|
|
N/C 2011 |
|
6.11 CUW |
6.63 |
.60 |
6.12 |
|
|
2011/ 160 |
|
|
N/C 2012 |
|
6.65 CUW |
|
+30/ -35 |
|
+12/ -25 |
|
2012/ 164 |
|
|
***Club premium: $Call!! B/C |
|
MSTOS |
CANOLA: |
.144/ lb |
|
|
|
*** NOTE: Corn bids vary depending on point of delivery. Please Call for Updates.
US $ is up again this morning. Wheat futures are mostly lower, but specs are supporting. Chicago is about even, while KC and Mpls are both trading in the red. Corn is higher. House Ag Chairman Collin Peterson (if you don’t know the name, you will hear it a lot as talk of the Farm Bill progresses). Anyway, he commented that he feels the EPA will approve E-15 by June. It will be interesting to see market reaction, as it is not a mandate, only approval (most likely in newer vehicles). In other ethanol news a bill was introduced that would extend the .45/ gallon tax credit through 2015, as well as extend the import tariff on ethanol also through 2015 (Brazil won’t be happy about that). Both are currently set to expire the end of this year. So we can expect more volatility in corn as political influences weigh on the market.
Overnight there was a private bean sale to China for 6.8 myn bu. Indonesia booked 4.7 myn bu of SAM corn, and are said to be working on an additional 7.8-11 myn bu. They are expected to book 27.5 myn bu from SAM this year. Jordan booked 1.8 myn bu of Black sea wheat overnight. Cool/ Wet weather is delaying corn planting in China.
***Didja Know: Most of the Paki wheat crop is still stored in jute bags. Losses of 10-18% are common. In some areas most of the wheat will still be stored in piles outside where up to ½ of the wheat becomes inedible before the next harvest. They have not added any significant wheat storage in over 25 years.
***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***
Tuesday, April 20

PGG MARKET REPORT
by
PGG Country
on Tue 20 Apr 2010 12:51 PM PDT
Morrow County Grain Growers Pendleton Grain Growers
Duane Disque or Brian Peiler Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 4/ 20 / 10
|
|
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn |
|
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
|
April |
4.80 |
|
6.75 |
1.60 |
5.40 |
.45 |
115 |
142 |
|
May |
4.80 |
4.84 CKW |
6.75 |
1.60 |
5.40 |
.45 |
115 |
|
|
|
June |
4.80 |
|
6.76 |
1.50 |
5.45 |
.35 |
115 |
|
|
|
July |
4.78 |
4.96 CNW |
6.61/ 40 |
1.35/ 15 |
5.45 |
.35 |
|
|
|
August |
4.78 |
|
6.44 |
1.05 |
5.51 |
.35 |
|
|
|
September |
4.81 |
5.13 CUW |
|
1.05 |
|
|
|
|
|
OND |
5.05 ish |
|
|
|
|
|
|
149 |
|
N/C 2011 |
|
5.97 CUW |
6.62 |
.60 |
5.97 |
.20 KUW |
|
2011/ 157 |
|
|
N/C 2012 |
|
6.60 CUW |
|
|
|
|
|
2012/ 160 |
|
|
**Club premium: Buyers Call! |
Prem/Disc |
+25/ -30 |
Prem/ Disc |
+15/ -20 |
Canola: |
.143/ lb |
|
***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.
Was out of the office yesterday, so 2 days worth of news... US $ was up sharply yesterday, that coupled with ?Goldman Sachs? helped drive grain markets into the ditch. ?Turn around Tuesday? has the markets getting about Excellent planting weather has the market thinking that record corn planting progress will be seen on this afternoons report. Progress report showed 19% corn planted (best ever), so no weather bump, at least yet for this spring. Winter wheat crop ratings increased to 69% G-Ex, and even spring wheat plantings are ahead of the 5 years ave, running 20% complete. COT report showed the specs did in fact buy 37 myn bu of Chicago futures since the last report, but are still net short about 200 myn bu. Shipment report from yesterday showed corn and wheat shipments still lagging. Unless things change we have virtually no chance of hitting USDA export numbers on wheat.
Gov?t says they will start now on the 2012 farm bill. You might remember it took over a year and half to complete the last one. Early talk is that this one will be ?Fundamentally? different from the last one. SURE will expire in 2011, and it does not seem likely to survive. In all there will be some $9 byn in various farm program payments that could be gone before the new Farm Bill (what ever it may look like) is in place. Expect a strong emphasis on cost cutting as the weight of the Fed deficit must be brought in line.
China auctioned off 43 of the 55 myn bu of reserve corn offered to reduce domestic prices. Average price sold was $249/ ton. They will also give growers 150 yuan/ ha to plant wheat in certain parts of China. FWIW: It takes 6.83 Yuan to equal $1. There are 2.47 ha / acre?so it works out to $8.90/ acres incentive for wheat planting. The Chinese gov?t has also offered $15 myn (100 myn yuan) to help growers buy equipment. Over the weekend Bangladesh bot 11 myn bu of Russian wheat at $5.96/ bu del?d. This is thought to be part of 21.3 myn bu deal. Dryness in some parts of OZ will slow planting of winter wheat, but overall conditions are rated ?good?. Argie planting conditions for wheat look excellent, and they will likely double last years drought reduced production
***Didja Know: Cats are the most popular pets in the US, not dogs. A cat?s brain is more similar to human brain than a dogs? Says here a dog?s memory lasts about 5 minutes, while cats can remember up to 16 hours (which is even longer than monkeys or Orangutans). Blue Whales can get to 96? long and weigh up to 125 tons?sailfish can swim up to 68 miles/ hour.
***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***
Friday, April 16

PGG MARKET REPORT
by
PGG Country
on Fri 16 Apr 2010 09:24 AM PDT
Morrow County Grain Growers Pendleton Grain Growers
Duane Disque or Brian Peiler Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 4/ 16 / 10
|
|
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn |
|
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
|
April |
4.80 |
|
6.74 |
1.60 |
5.38 |
.45 |
115 |
146 |
|
May |
4.80 |
4.83 CKW |
6.74 |
1.60 |
5.38 |
.45 |
115 |
|
|
|
June |
4.80 |
|
6.75 |
1.50 |
5.44 |
.35 |
115 |
|
|
|
July |
4.80 |
4.96 CNW |
6.60/ 40 |
1.35/ 15 |
5.44 |
.35 |
|
|
|
August |
4.80 |
|
6.42 |
1.05 |
5.51 |
.35 |
|
|
|
September |
4.83 |
5.13 CUW |
6.42 |
1.05 |
5.65 |
|
|
|
|
OND |
5.05 ish |
|
|
|
|
|
|
153 |
|
N/C 2011 |
|
5.97 CUW |
6.58 |
|
6.08 |
.20 KUW |
|
2011/ 160 |
|
|
N/C 2012 |
|
6.60 CUW |
|
|
|
|
|
2012/ 163 |
|
|
**Club premium: Buyers Call! |
Prem/Disc |
+25/ -30 |
Prem/ Disc |
+15/ -20 |
Canola: |
.143/ lb |
|
***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.
$ is up again as Greek bonds continue to shed value, weighing on the Euro. Crude and gold are lower, but the short covering in grains continues with corn at / near even and wheaties up a couple. The biggest change in our bid lineup this morning has to be the big cut in DNS basis, losing some .25 overnight. Exporters are much more comfortable with the pipeline so pull is reduced. The protein scales have also lightened up with the DNS scales now +25/ -30, while the HRW scales are now at +15/-20. Corn planting should show huge progress on Monday?s progress report as weather has been very good for field work. NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) says that after the ?warmest? March on record in the US, the US from North Dakota to Texas will see Below average temperatures May ? July. The Western US and Alaska will see Above Normal temperature.
Russian overall ?Grain Acres? are projected down 1.7 myn acres. China will release another 54 myn bu from their corn reserves in another effort to bring down domestic corn prices. China?s corn plantings will be delayed in the North as they continue to get cool/ wet weather. Indonesia bought .5 myn bu of Black Sea wheat. The Indian government says that they still expect to finish harvest with 82 myn mt.
***Didja Know: Crook County, Oregon is the only county in the US that voted for the eventual winner in every Presidential election that they have been involved with?(yes CROOK County). It takes about 10,000 calories to produce 1 bag of M&M?s?.that is nearly 2x the amount of calories of the candy themselves.
HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!!!
***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***
Thursday, April 15

PGG MARKET REPORT
by
PGG Country
on Thu 15 Apr 2010 11:30 AM PDT
Morrow County Grain Growers Pendleton Grain Growers
Duane Disque or Brian Peiler Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 4/ 15 / 10
|
|
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn |
|
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
|
April |
4.80 |
|
6.98 |
1.85 |
5.40 |
.45 |
115 |
145 |
|
May |
4.80 |
4.81 CKW |
6.98 |
1.85 |
5.40 |
.45 |
115 |
|
|
|
June |
4.80 |
|
6.93/ 73 |
1.80/ 60 |
5.42 |
.35 |
115 |
|
|
|
July |
4.80 |
4.93 CNW |
6.59/ 39 |
1.35/ 15 |
5.42 |
.35 |
|
|
|
August |
4.82 |
|
6.41 |
1.05 |
5.54 |
.35 |
|
|
|
September |
4.83 |
5.10 CUW |
6.50 |
1.03 |
|
|
|
|
|
OND |
5.10 ish |
|
|
|
|
|
|
152 |
|
N/C 2011 |
|
6.07 CUW |
6.63 |
6.63 |
6.07 |
.20 KUW |
|
2011/ 160 |
|
|
N/C 2012 |
|
6.60 CUW |
|
|
|
|
|
2012/ 164 |
|
|
**Club premium: Buyers Call! |
Prem/Disc |
+30/ -35 |
Prem/ Disc |
+15/ -25 |
Canola: |
.143/ lb |
|
***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.
$ is up. Gold, crude are lower and in a twist grains are trading higher. We are nearing the end of the May option, and I suspect we are seeing some ?spec short covering?. The export Sales report was rated GOOD for corn with 39.4 myn bu of o/c sales and 5.5 myn bu of n/c sales. Wheat sales were pathetic with only 3.7 myn bu of o/c sales: .8 DNS, 1.3 HRW, .2 SRW and 1.4 SWW. But there were 11.4 myn bu of n/c sales, which was nice to see. Of that total: 4 myn DNS, 4.5 HRW, .7 SRW and 1.8 SWW. Total US wheat SHIPMENTS are only 679 myn bu ytd. Which is 9% low with only 7 weeks left in the 2009-10 marketing year. At this current pace we will end up shipping about 800 myn bu of wheat vs. 865 myn USDA projections?pushing another 65 myn bu in to old crop carryouts.
The lower Euro has helped push French wheat futures to 3 month highs. As a result the signal sent to French growers is PLANT GRAIN. The EU said this morning that they expect wheat production up 3% vs. last year and are hoping for reduced production in the Ukraine and North Africa so that they might reach at least last years export levels. Weather has been slowing Ukrainian plantings and impacting the Russian wheat acres.
Just when I had thought we wouldn?t hear any more adjustments to the 2009 corn crop, USDA said that they will complete the re-survey of the North and South Dakota corn acres/ production and show the revisions in the May S&D report (due out on 5/11). So far there hasn?t been any guesses from the industry what impact that may have to the corn S&D?s.
***Didja Know: When milking a cow, it takes an average of about 350 ?squirts? of milk to make a gallon? Survey?s show that left handed people are 3 time more likely to be late than right handed people? 75% of all jobs in the US don?t require any sort of college degree? Airline travel is pretty safe, stats show that you are 50 times more likely to die in a restaurant than in an airline accident?.
***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***
Wednesday, April 14

PGG MARKET REPORT
by
PGG Country
on Wed 14 Apr 2010 12:04 PM PDT
|
Morrow County Grain Growers |
|
Pendleton Grain Growers |
|
|
|
Duane Disque Or Brian Peiler |
|
Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson |
|
|
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 |
|
1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611 |
|
|
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (work), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net |
|
|
|
|
|
|
GOOD MORNING!! |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Below are the best indications available as of: |
9:00 |
4/ 14 /10 |
|
|
| |
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn |
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
|
|
April |
4.80 |
|
6.97 |
1.90 |
5.42 |
.52 |
115 |
144 |
|
|
May |
4.80 |
4.73 CKW |
6.97 |
1.90 |
5.42 |
.52 |
115 |
|
|
|
June |
4.80 |
|
7.04/ 6.79 |
1.85/ 60 |
5.36 |
.35 |
115 |
|
|
|
July |
4.80 |
4.86 CNW |
6.54/ 34 |
1.35/ 15 |
5.36 |
.35 |
|
|
|
|
August |
4.82 |
|
6.37 |
1.05 |
5.38 |
.25 |
|
|
|
|
September |
4.90 |
5.03 CUW |
6.37 |
1.03 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
OND est |
5.12 ish |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2010/ 151 |
|
|
N/C 2011 |
|
6.03 CUW |
6.55 |
.60 |
6.03 |
.20 |
|
2011/ 160 |
|
|
N/C 2012 |
|
6.50 CUW |
|
+30/ -35 |
|
+12/ -25 |
|
2012/ 164 |
|
|
***Club premium: $Call!! B/C |
|
MSTOS |
CANOLA: |
.144/ lb |
|
|
|
*** NOTE: Corn bids vary depending on point of delivery. Please Call for Updates.
US $$ is weaker again today vs. the Euro…which predictably translates into better futures for grains, higher crude and gold. The market is struggling to make grain news, but today we are seeing some of the ‘short covering rally’ we had expected. With only 2 weeks left in the May, specs holding short May positions will need to cover.
South Korea did book 2.1 myn bu of either US or SAM corn. Chinese corn, after their auction, is running about a $29 discount to US corn. Ukraine spring planting is way behind. Their spring planting is rated at 55% complete vs. a normal of 96%…but remember they had HEAVY replanting to do this spring after winter losses.
USDA is facing pressure to make changes on crop insurance. The opponents are pointing out high payouts in years when the price was high….lets take a look (Following info from the RMA website): for the 2009 crop, RMA paid out $461 myn in the PNW against CRC, and received $156 myn in premiums….NOTE: Washington State had by FAR AND AWAY The highest payout in CRC of any state paying out $3.48 for every $ they received in premium. Oregon was $2.77/ $ of premium, and Idaho was $2.31. But that is only part of the story. Nationwide RMA paid out $2.4 byn, while receiving $4.4 byn in premiums…so insurance not only worked for growers, but it looks like the gov’t did well also.
Here is some info you might find interesting from the EIA (Energy Information Agency): Out of every gallon of gas you buy (approximates): 69% goes to pay for the crude oil, 6% pays for the refining, 10% goes to pay for distribution and marketing and 15% goes to TAX…today .45 of every gallon is tax. The EIA expects a nationwide average high price of gasoline of $2.97 this summer (we are basically there). They also expect the price of crude to trade from $68 to $101/ bbl. (we have already seen the low side of that estimate), with an average of $79/ bbl this year. Gasoline inventories are 7 myn gallons more than last year, and 11 myn more than the 5 year average….they expect gasoline usage to be slightly higher than last year.
***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***
Tuesday, April 13

PGG MARKET REPORT
by
PGG Country
on Tue 13 Apr 2010 09:57 AM PDT
Morrow County Grain Growers Pendleton Grain Growers
Duane Disque or Brian Peiler Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 4/ 13 / 10
|
|
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn |
|
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
|
April |
4.75 |
|
6.94 |
1.95 |
5.41 |
.52 |
115 |
140 |
|
May |
4.75 |
4.73 CKW |
6.94 |
1.95 |
5.41 |
.52 |
115 |
|
|
|
June |
4.75 |
|
6.99/ 74 |
1.95/ 60 |
5.35 |
.35 |
115 |
|
|
|
July |
4.75 |
4.86 CNW |
6.49/ 29 |
1.35/ 15 |
5.35 |
.35 |
| |