Duane Disque or Brian Peiler                              Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson

             1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221                           1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

              or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell)  graingrowers@centurytel.net

                                                            GOOD MORNING!!!          

            Below are the best indicated market bids as of:   9:00  on      9/29/09

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

            USDA report tomorrow. It?s a small grain summary. Market is expecting tight stocks on Beans (100 myn bu or so) and increases pretty much across the board for wheats. Overall wheat production up at least 15 myn bu. Wheat will just have some tough sledding?.the fundamentals are not favorable. The most positive thing today is that the expected plantings across the world look like they will be lower next year (more later). Crop progress from yesterday: 6% of the corn is harvest vs. 18% 5 yr ave. 90% is dented vs. 97% ave and 37% is mature vs. 72% ave.

            Egypt booked 5.5 myn bu of Russian wheat at $4.63 del?d. Haven?t heard of the other offers yet. Bangladesh will tender next week. FWIW today Chicago futures are an average of $1.27 over the ?ave? SRW cash bid. Weather man says that El Nino favors a wetter Texas and by mid winter they should have enough precip to effectively end their drought. They have been hammered with drought this year, in fact according to the drought index, they are the only place in the US listed as ?extreme?. Rabobank says that they see world wheat plantings much lower next year due to poor pxes. Some of the biggest reductions will be seen in the FSU where they had pulled in some ?marginal? acres to take advantage of decent pxes. Informa had released their US estimates earlier (with acres down 1.8 myn vs. 2009).

            Aussie crop is more or less ?made? with less than 1 month to go for major wheat production areas. WA is getting more rain again today. About the only area where serious reductions are anticipated are in NSW. Most crop guess places the Aussie crop at 22 myn mt. Many are now placing the NSW production at about 6.3 myn mt vs. 6.8 last year. WA production is estimated 8.7 myn mt up 2% vs. last year. If Aussie can manage to pull in a 22 myn mt that would make about 16 myn mt available for export. Chinese corn production is widely expected to be down about 10%. They still maintain no large import program, but their largest feed mill did buy a bit of corn from Taiwan. China is/ has been big DDG buyers.

***Didja Know: I wondered why the baseball was getting bigger, then it hit me. Mercury is the only metal that is liquid at room temperature?

             Duane Disque or Brian Peiler                              Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson

             1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221                           1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

              or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell)  graingrowers@centurytel.net

                                                            GOOD MORNING!!!          

            Below are the best indicated market bids as of:   9:00  on      9/28/09

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

            FAT carry from Sept to Oct, then things flatten out considerably. No one seems to want spot SWW. Basis on the red wheats has fallen from the peaks. Inspection report showed a HUGE week for wheat @ 24 myn bu shipped, while corn was very disappointing with only 29 myn bu shipped. Wheat shipments tallied 4.8 myn bu DNS, 7.1 HRW, 4.9 SRW, 5.4 SWW. US Wheat signed a letter of intent with Taiwan flour. They agreed to buy 62 myn bu of US wheat for 2010-11. They generally buy about 35 myn bu. Iraq is tendering for 3.6 myn bu of US wheat (remember as we have seen in the past these type of tenders can and do grow). Chilly weather is forecast for the US the next few nights before warmer/ drier returns. Early harvest results have been mixed with some reports of ?better than expected?, and other reports of ?lighter than expected TW?. Fact is it is too early to tell.

            Corn demand must pick up from somewhere if this market is going to rally much. US hog herd is down 2% vs. last year. Chinese corn production will be down probably as much as 12 myn mt, but they do NOT expect to import any corn. Brazil is looking at perhaps another record bean harvest. Last year they harvested 60 myn mt, this year they are projecting as much as 64 myn mt. Recent rains, and heavy increase in acreage due to px differential are the main reason. Corn pxes are down 18% from last year, while bean pxes are down 5.5%.

            Obama is testing China, and has proposed a 35% tire tariff on Chinese tires. Note; The tires that generally come from China are the smaller/ less expensive types. NONE of the 10 US tire manufacturers asked for the increased tariff. China responded by clamping down on chicken imports from the US.

***Didja Know: For the first time in history, the number of people over the age of 60 will soon surpass the number of people under the age of 5?.average yield of Bio Fuel/ acre: Corn 42 gallons, Palm oil 800 gallons, Algae est. 20,000 gallons.

            Morrow County Grain Growers                                Pendleton Grain Growers

             Duane Disque or Brian Peiler                              Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson

             1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221                           1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

              or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell)  graingrowers@centurytel.net

                                                            GOOD MORNING!!!          

            Below are the best indicated market bids as of:   9:00  on      9/25/09

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

            US $  was lower overnight, but only after surging higher earlier. The world banks announced a sharp reduction of US $$ into their economies, firming the $. Of course higher $ is bad for exports. Yesterday we saw the markets rally nicely. The main reason was short covering. It was going to happen eventually, and the shorts still have a position. It will be an interesting day, to see whether the market takes a bit of breather, or the shorts continue to cover/ take profits. Fundamentally, the wheat markets are still weak, though we have had some nice weeks of sales and shipments. Nothing HUGE, but nice progress. In corn, the market seems to be stuck in this trading range as it waits out the weather. One thing is certain, although there won’t be any shortage of corn between now and next harvest, there is some concern over whether the market will get enough acres planted next spring at these type of levels…leading me to believe there will be a new crop rally to ensure acres do get planted. Even though it is down the road, there are a lot of planting/ rotation decisions being made today.

            Russia is forecasting exports of about 19 myn mt (they had 23 myn mt last year). Their production is down a bit, but it is more of reflection of an uber competitive buyers marketplace. We do have Malaysia and Indonesia in ‘kicking the tires’ for 11 myn bu of hard wheats. More perennial wheat news: NSW has been testing varieties as well, their main emphasis right now seems to be on winter hardiness.

            We have been talking about the CFTC and their attempts to force convergence. Yesterday I reported that it would be great to have convergence by July/ Sept. but didn’t really think they would act any time soon. I read in a different article, that they may still try to apply the  ‘variable storage concept’ to the December option. Maybe they are getting serious!

            CRC signups MUST be done by 9/30!

***Didja Know: The average American eats about 17 lbs of potato chips each year. Says here, that at General Motors, the cost of Health Care, exceeds the cost of steel to produce a car. The average age that most people ‘voluntarily’ give up their drivers licenses is 85.

***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***

             Duane Disque or Brian Peiler                              Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson

             1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221                           1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

              or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell)  graingrowers@centurytel.net

                                                            GOOD MORNING!!!          

            Below are the best indicated market bids as of:   9:00  on      9/23/09

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

            US $$ is up. Still no frost in the ?corn country? on the radar screen. Corn seems to be somewhat ?locked into a range? until something market defining happens. At some point all the negative news will be priced into this market. Sales report this morning showed mediocre corn numbers at 26.5 myn bu, which is far too light to hit USDA, while wheat numbers were a strong 18.5 myn bu. Biggest negative item in the news today was that the IGC increased world wheat production by another 4% to 666 myn mt. Yesterday, OI was up again indicating the formation of new positions. So it wasn?t like it was just profit taking. We do have 2 scattered frost events scheduled for the NW next week. This would probably, actually be good for our corn at this point.

            Michigan State, WSU and KSU continue to work on a ?perennial? variety of wheat. Even though the concept goes back to the 1920?s, advancement in technology now has a at least a few varieties close to commercialization. The yields still aren?t there, but considering the erosion control, and the reduced inputs they are getting close. I have not heard/ seen any yield or quality data. The CFTC is up to the SOT (Same Ol Thing) for convergence. After the hearings etc, they will now propose to implement the variable storage rates?.but the foot draggin has gone on long enough now that they really don?t want to implement it for the Dec. cak. ?Previous changes had not done enough? DUH. So they will continue to tweak it, and work on delivery specs. MAYBE they will have some concrete changes by next Sept. Note: When the Sept expired, at one point we were within .83 of convergence.  Watch the board rally?.BE READY with HTA type tools for 2010 new crop sales! House Ag Chairman Colin Peterson is suggesting retro active MILC payments to help out the dairy farmers. It?s controversial, but probably very necessary to avoid massive liquidations of the dairy industry.

            Argie got heavy rains, which should be very helpful for crop production.

***Didja Know: 1908 Ford Model T: 25 mpg. 2004 EPA average for ALL cars: 21 mpg?.Amusement park attendance generally INCREASES after an accident?the Panama Canal generates 1/3 of the countries revenue?.1 ship may pay $250m to use the canal?In the US workers take an average of 10 days vacation/ year. In France law guarantees everyone 5 weeks, but most full time employees get 2 months?.   

            Morrow County Grain Growers                                Pendleton Grain Growers

             Duane Disque or Brian Peiler                              Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson

             1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221                           1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

              or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell)  graingrowers@centurytel.net

                                                            GOOD MORNING!!!          

            Below are the best indicated market bids as of:   9:00  on      9/23/09

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

             Duane Disque or Brian Peiler                              Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson

             1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221                           1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

              or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell)  graingrowers@centurytel.net

                                                            GOOD MORNING!!!          

            Below are the best indicated market bids as of:   9:00  on      9/22/09

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

            News is pretty limited this morning. Both the $$ and crude are up. OI surged a bit last week, which is an indication of new positions?question is, are they new shorts or longs? After last weeks action it would appear to be shorts. With weather basically out of the equation (its GREAT fall weather?some would even say too HOT). 25% of the US winter wheat crop is in the ground which is right on pace with a 5 year average. USDA says that 21% of the corn is mature vs. 55% on the 5 year ave, and 80% is dented vs. 93% ave. Spring wheat harvest is 85% complete vs. 93% on ave?and with the weather we have scheduled, should wrap up the majority of the balance.

            Hot fall weather has been great for the slow moving US corn crop. Locally we are seeing moistures far below normal. High moisture corn is being cut a little before black layer since the moistures have dropped so far. My point is that perhaps there are other parts of the country that are experiencing the same thing, though it doesn?t make it through the ?normal? news reports. Quality appears to be very good.

            Only news on the international scene is that the Paki gov?t announced they will remove export duties to allow exports of up to about 2 myn mt of wheat. They had a bumper crop, and I suspect that at least part of the rationale is to demonstrate their ability of self sufficiency to the world. Making a few extra bucks on exports certainly won?t hurt either.

***Didja Know: By 1900 Pendleton was the states 4^th largest city at a population of about 4400? The Pendleton roundup is the only PRCA held on grass field? The closest relative to the elephant is a manatee? Australia is the only country that is also a continent? The little dot over an i, is called a tittle.

             Duane Disque or Brian Peiler                              Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson

             1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221                           1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

              or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell)  graingrowers@centurytel.net

                                                            GOOD MORNING!!!          

            Below are the best indicated market bids as of:   9:00  on      9/21/09

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

            Inspection report drew large numbers from wheat with 23 myn bu shipped: 5.5 myn DSN, 8.9 HRW, 2.7 SRW and 4.6 myn SWW. It was a good week for shipments, now the market surveys the horizon for the next batch of sales. Corn didn?t fare as well, only shipping 33.1 myn bu. Quite a ways off the weekly goal. Wheat industry submitted an 8 page letter in support of GM wheat, sponsored by NAWG, US Wheat, North American Millers, Independent Bakers, and Wheat Food Council. Some notable names are missing from that list?I wonder what that means?

            Weather man sez showers in the southern plains as well as corn country. Also sees ZERO chance of frost for at least 2 weeks?this should allow 70-80% of all corn to hit maturity. Interesting view of the COT report this morning, as I believe it only reflects a portion of last weeks wild gyrations. In Chicago wheat, specs bot 275 myn bu of wheat and funds bot 240 myn bu (I believe they have since sold most of that back and the specs are running RED balances again today. The specs initiated a 500 myn bu swing in corn futures just on Tuesday?s rumor of frost. Today, a record corn crop looks quite likely. One bright spot is that economics today strongly favor ethanol. With upper 60?s, low 70?s in crude and relatively cheap corn, margins have returned to the ethanol industry. There is also increased chatter about the possibility of increasing blend requirements to at least 12%. Depending on where you are, you can argue ?its only a 2% change??but in reality it amounts to a potential 20% increase in ethanol production. 18 months from now will the GMA once again be bashing ethanol? I?m sure grocery pxes have declined with the value of grains falling off a cliff.

            Chinese gov?t is considering stockpiling more corn for the reserve. It is important to them to keep farmers on the land and production up. Ag has always had some ?ebb and flow?, today is no different. Rabobank puts the Aussie crop @ 22.8 myn mt with the caveat, that the crop is not ?made?. If Aussie hits 22.8 mmt, it is a 6.5 % increase vs. last year. They say that WA and SA look very good.

             Duane Disque or Brian Peiler                              Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson

             1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221                           1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

              or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell)  graingrowers@centurytel.net

                                                            GOOD MORNING!!!          

            Below are the best indicated market bids as of:   9:00  on      9/18/09

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

            Extended forecast for the next 10-14 days say NO chance of frost. Without weather events the corn slowly moves toward maturity. Meanwhile in the GREAT PNW we are 10 to 14 days ahead of last year. Even corn that is not yet mature is nearly full of starch, with very little milk remaining. Quality and yields look to be VERY good. Next report from the USDA is the Sept 30 ?Grain stocks and Small Grains Summary?. They will be making final estimates of ?09 wheat production, then tweaking those numbers occasionally as the year progresses. Informa is generally 10 days ahead of USDA and so it is this time. They are projecting final wheat production about 30 myn bu lower than last USDA guess, but what could be even more interesting, is that they are projecting planted wheat acres down 1.8 myn acres for ?10.  With ?normal? abandonment and 43 bu yields that reduces the US ?10 crop by about 70 myn bu. Breakdown by class could be enormously important as smaller classes (SRW/ SWW/ Durum) could be impacted in the deferreds.

            If you haven?t yet, make sure to visit with your insurance agent regarding CRC?only 8 days left to ?sign up?!!!

            In another sign of the times, Russia?s wheat exports are down about 24-28% vs. this time last year, as world demand just is not real strong right now. With monsoons ending in India, they are projecting about 25% shortfall in over all rainfall. One article had rice production estimates down 17 myn mt due to reduced rainfall. Wheat production however, (being a good dryland crop) is expected to come in at projections. The EU is re-thinking their position on GM allowance levels. World wide acceptance of GMO corn has hit the point where the EU growers are at a decided disadvantage in the livestock industry. So it is either stick to principles or stick it to the growers and ultimately the consumers. Bangladesh is offering 3 tenders (all comers/ optional origin) TOS is end of Sept to November. You know one thing we have ?quietly? missed from this market in some time is a CCC donation tender.

***Didja Know: The ?average? American eats 68 quarts of popcorn/ year? Earthworms apparently have NO capacity to ?get dizzy?. ?What do you call a boomerang that doesn?t work?/// A stick?.

                                                            HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!!!

            Morrow County Grain Growers                                Pendleton Grain Growers

             Duane Disque or Brian Peiler                              Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson

             1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221                           1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

              or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell)  graingrowers@centurytel.net

                                                            GOOD MORNING!!!          

            Below are the best indicated market bids as of:   9:00  on      9/17/09