Duane Disque or Brian Peiler                              Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson

             1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221                           1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

              or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell)  graingrowers@centurytel.net

                                                            GOOD MORNING!!!          

            Below are the best indicated market bids as of:   9:00  on      8/28/09

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

            Crude is down sharply, the $$ is up, all is negative for grains. Today is the FND of the September caks. Markets are getting thrashed?there is more coming?.you will notice that the carry in SWW has really flattened out as well, once you get past October. The weather man sez there is no frost in the ?reasonable foreseeable? future?.at least the next 2 weeks. Today?s crop report will show corn for the most part (at least in Minn, and the ?I? states) still behind, nothing new?we?ve dealt with it all year. IF the frost holds off till 10/5 or later, we have a very real chance of harvesting our largest corn crop ever?For corn the next support level is $3.10, then an eventual re-test of $2.90?IF the frost holds off. No map today?will include email info from ?Aussie?.

            COT report show the specs net short in Chicago wheat, KC and Chicago Corn. The index funds are just rolling with the punches and their net long position has not changed. They are long 860 myn bu Chicago wheat and 1.655 byn bu of corn.

            El Nino signals are weakening. Generally an El Nino means a wetter/ milder winter for the US and Argie/ Brazil. Below are some comments from our ?Aussie? connection: Sorry for the length?

The dry weather continues, currently 25 degrees C here at lunchtime. Crops are starting to fall apart rapidly and many will be looking at below average yields. Things are not much better to the North, Emerald area is having a very difficult time as is much of the Downs. To the near South things are not much better. To the far South many parts of South Australia are having a good time, the farmers down there desperately need a reasonable year. I understand that growing conditions are favourable in West Australia. There is a high chance of rain this weekend (90% of  1-5mm) but I'm a little confused by that one, I am wondering what the chances of 25mm are?

However, a heatwave which saw temperatures climb to a NSW-record 37 degrees at Evans Head on the north coast, and pushed the mercury over 30 degrees in key northern NSW growing areas. Crops through northern NSW and Queensland are now desperate for rain to meet anywhere near early yield expectations. 

In contrast, Western Australia has experienced a damp August, with many major grain producing areas recording well above average rainfall, setting up the season well.

Northern NSW crops are generally getting by on stored moisture. Landmark Gunnedah agronomist Aaron Goddard said crops there are now pushing a head up due to the heat and dry. ?It got to 31 degrees here this week, and combined with the wind it has pushed things back a lot in the past fortnight.? However, he said there were crops on long fallow that were hanging on well, although all could do with a drink within the week. ?There are forecasts of around 10mm for the weekend, which would buy us a little time.? The subsoil moisture has been the key in getting crops through thus far. ?Crops have done well for the season, with very little rain, they?ve all survived on that stored moisture.? South of Dubbo, things are struggling after a drier than average winter.

Wagga Wagga has received well less than its average winter rain, with just 83mm for June and July. Crops were crying for rain until 10mm over the weekend.

South Australian crop condition varies from very good through parts of the Eyre and Yorke Peninsulas and through the south-east to almost failed already in parts of the Upper Mallee. Despite the poor patches Chris Heinjus, Rural Directions, based in Freeling in SA?s mid-north, said overall crop condition was ahead of the same time last year. ?There?s some localised concerns with dry conditions, but that?s not the big picture, overall we are way in front of this time last year, although unfortunately not all will be enjoying the improvement.?

Western Australia is going well. Early in the month, a ProFarmer crop report had 68pc of WA crops looking fair or better. This was markedly less than SA?s 80pc and Victoria and NSW also posted higher figures, but in the three weeks following the report WA has recorded by far the best rainfall. With the exception of some eastern grain production areas, such as around Lake Grace, things are set up for an average to above average season. Again, there are problems with it getting too wet. Karryn Dorrell, an agronomist with Elders at Katanning in the Great Southern said she was hoping for some sunshine. ?Things are looking good, perhaps a little bit on the wet side.? ?We?ve certainly got the moisture to get crops through for a while ? there have been a few patches that have got quite badly waterlogged.?

            Argie will begin what has now almost become an annual ritual, the on again/ off again farmer strikes. They said they are prepared to hold out for up to 12 days not selling any grain or livestock. The gov?t won?t budge and the very high (extortion like) export duties on beans remains. WTO found in favor of Brazil for up to $295 myn in retribution against the US?basically meaning that Brazil can penalize US imports to the tune of up to $295 myn.

***Didja Know: The average share of stock in China has traded hands 3 times already this year? The average share is also trading at 31 times the earnings which is over twice as high as the global average?so you tell me, things getting better there or worse?

             Duane Disque or Brian Peiler                              Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson

             1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221                           1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

              or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell)  graingrowers@centurytel.net

                                                            GOOD MORNING!!!          

            Below are the best indicated market bids as of:   9:00  on      8/28/09

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

            Markets are a little like the weather in Montana, if you don?t like em?just wait a little bit, they?ll change. One trend we have seen almost daily is which ever direction the futures start, they are almost certain to reverse by about 9 or 9:30?.then often times just before the close they struggle to get back near the original starting point. Today the markets opened up?an hour later we are seeing big red numbers (wheats down a dime, corn off 2-5). If it holds to pattern, by the close we will be back near where we started. Weaker $$ is helpful. Weather man sez warmer temps next week, which the bulls don?t want to hear. At this stage of the game each day that passes without a frost is one less day of price risk.

            CFTC is now ?surveying? the marketplace on ?variable storage rates?. The concept they have come up with this last go round, is very complex and quite confusing, and almost certainly will fall short of objectives. Until they get serious about the convergence, there is no reason to get excited. It feels like we are still in ?feet draggin? mode.

            Iran and Kazi have inked a deal that will make Iran, Kazakhstan?s largest wheat customer. Logistically and freight wise it makes sense. Aussie is supposed to get ?scattered showers? which won?t mean much, but will provide some relief from heat. It sounds as if they are really only a couple of nice rain events away from ?making the crop??but we know what that means in north east Oregon in May also. Today the best guess for the Aussie crop has been revised upward to 23.2 myn mt or about +8.4% vs. last year. Cheap wheat in Europe has wheat going to make ethanol. In fact last year 39% of the Euro ethanol was made from wheat?the by products are very cheap.

***Didja Know: It is now estimated that there were 2 myn acres in North Dakota that never got planted this year? If you could ?capture? all the material in a 10,000 mile long tail of a comet, the amount of material would take up less than 1 cubic inch? There is enough stone in the pyramids of Egypt to build a wall 10? high and 5? wide from New York to LA.

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!!!

             Duane Disque or Brian Peiler                              Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson

             1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221                           1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

              or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell)  graingrowers@centurytel.net

                                                            GOOD MORNING!!!          

            Below are the best indicated market bids as of:   9:00  on      8/27/09

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

            With Crude down, the equities down and so-so sales reports the markets are sagging a bit under the weight of large stocks/ and what could be record corn crop?if weather co-operates. Corn Sales were 38.4 myn bu (most of it for n/c). Actual shipments will NOT hit the mark. With 1 week remaining we would need to ship over 100 myn bu. Wheat sales were stronger than expected (lower pxes and a relatively weak $$ are certainly helpful). The breakdown on the week was: 5.7 myn DNS, 9.4 HRW, 5.4 SRW and 3 myn bu of SWW. The basis is still -$1.17 if convergence is going to happen in Sept, there will need to be some sharp adjustment?.actually I don?t think they have gotten serious enough about fixing the problem yet.

            Ethanol usage in blends is up 17% vs. last year at this time (lower corn pxes), meanwhile EPA says that 2/3 of domestic Bio-diesel production sits idle. The EPA never got around to issuing blend mandates for bio-diesel, and now with crude so low it isn?t economical at all. Meeting any type of blend mandate next year will be pretty much impossible with production so low.

            Here is an interesting item: with only a few days left to establish the CRC price, it looks like the average August px today is $4.89. According to the survey we did last February/ March?we have 1 guess exactly at $4.89 today (no it isn?t me)?..but the interesting thing is that AVERAGING all the guesses from pretty much all over Washington, and Oregon?the AVERAGE CRC guess was $4.88?AMAZING. More on this after we get the August px done?.

            Taiwan passed on a bean tender saying ?pxes are too high?. Japan inked the deal on their wheat tender: booked 3.6 myn US wheat and 2 myn Canadian, and 2 myn Aussie. The US portion was: 1.8 DNS, .9 HRW, and .9 WW. The IGC says wheat prod up 1.2% vs. July estimate, with ending stocks increasing by 13 myn mt?they do however say that ?southern hemisphere? production will alter estimates?meaning Aussie/ Argie. We already know Argie will be down sharply in acres due to drought.

             Duane Disque or Brian Peiler                              Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson

             1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221                           1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

              or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell)  graingrowers@centurytel.net

                                                            GOOD MORNING!!!          

            Below are the best indicated market bids as of:   9:00  on      8/25/09

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

            Wheat futures are up strong with spec short covering. Corn is off marginally, while beans are up in the near month, but the deferreds are down. Export inspections were disappointing for wheat and corn. There are only 2 weeks left in the corn marketing year, so with only 38.5 myn shipped (vs. 85.3 needed to match USDA), if we match that next week, then corn carry in will increase by about 80 myn bu. Wheat shipments were also a bit weak at 16.7 myn bu. 

            US corn crop is 57% in the dough vs. a 79% on a 5 year average. Corn crop conditions improved 2% in the Good to Ex. The only real ?news? for corn is the continuing frost concerns. Obviously the crop is behind. There is some production at risk, but boy, if it doesn?t frost we are talking about record yields?it is something the market will sort out, but there will be days when the volatility meter is high. The CFTC is still ?talking? convergence. We?ll see. Today there is $1.17 difference between the cash and the futures, and futures are up 11. The Spring wheat crop is 22% harvested vs. 58% ave. North Dakota is only about 7% complete vs. 62% on ave.

            Japan is tendering for wheat tonite: US, Canadian or Aussie. Last night Taiwan booked Brazilian corn. Canadian prairies are expected to stay warm/ dry, with good harvest weather. The AWB is expected to post losses of $120-$150 myn (mostly from their Brazil unit, which they are shutting down). The Chinese index is off 2.6%, but they did buy 110m mt of soybeans, these may be shipped ex. US or Argie. The Chinese also sold 62% or roughly 60 myn bu from Tuesday?s auction.

            SWW prices are ?flattening? out as more grain gets booked into the carry. Average CRC price is about $4.92. So FAR, the CRC futures for next year are averaging about $5.62?what?s it mean? IF we get a .25 basis added is $5.87 and 85% coverage?it is about $5 wheat.

***Didja Know: US Household spending accounts for 70% of the US economy, and about 20% of the Global economy?.

             Duane Disque or Brian Peiler                              Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson

             1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221                           1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

              or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell)  graingrowers@centurytel.net

                                                            GOOD MORNING!!!          

            Below are the best indicated market bids as of:   9:00  on      8/24/09

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

            Crude is up again, Dow is also up. Grain futures are getting a boost this morning from Beans. Beans are up .44 nearby, helping wheats up 7 and corn 5-7. The Pro Farmer tour says 12.8 byn bu corn and 3.15 byn bu beans (provided there is no killing frost by about 10/10.  Weather man sez it will cool off later this week, then heat up again next week (in the corn belt). All the crop needs to finish is a bit of moisture and some warm temps through Sept. COT report showed the specs short 285 myn bu of wheat, while the funds are long 855 myn bu. I believe the specs are short due to the terrible fundamentals and in anticipation that the CFTC will do more to force convergence. The steps they have taken so far are small and ineffective. One article was quoted as ?position limits must be applied and vigorously enforced?. Sounds great, but it is only a small part of the problem. They are also re-introducing the idea of variable storage rates. This has been kicked around, but so far nothing has come of it. Wheat fundamentals are still terrible. We have seen some production cuts in places like Russia, but they have been more or less offset by increases in Germany, EU.

            Taiwan is in tonight for US/ Brazilian corn, Oct is the TOS. It continues to be very dry in parts of Aussie?particularly the North, Northeast and NSW. The western areas are ok for now. (Updated maps attached). It was 90 ?93 in NSW yesterday, as winter ?heat? records continue to fall. Last weekend Sydney was +11? above normal temps, and Mungindi (you didn?t know where that was? It?s on the border between Queensland and NSW) set a record of 97? yesterday. China is expected to reduce their bean / corn production in the northern territories (higher production areas) due to increased drought. In fact 1/3 of the northern territories are listed as under ?severe? drought. There should be no shortage of grains however as China is currently carrying over 6 myn mt of beans and 30 myn mt of corn?and still auctioning corn off.

            CRC for August this year was $4.82 last week bringing the August ave to $4.90. Next years levels are running about $5.60.

***Didja Know: ?Politics is the gentle art of getting the vote from the poor, and campaign funds from the rich, while promising to protect each from the other?..Oscar Ameringer?There is enough fuel in full fuel tank of Jumbo jet to drive an average car around the world 4 times.

             Duane Disque or Brian Peiler                              Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson

             1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221                           1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

              or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell)  graingrowers@centurytel.net

                                                            GOOD MORNING!!!          

            Below are the best indicated market bids as of:   9:00  on      8/20/09

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

            Crude is lower, the $$ is higher. Chinese stock index is up 4.5% overnight, after losing 20% of its value in the last 2 weeks?US unemployment expected to add about 550m jobs?not real good.

            Wheat markets went no bid yesterday for awhile after the futures pits traded a .20+ range in 20 minutes. An announcement from the CFTC rejecting requests from 2 funds for limit exemptions scared the market. The CFTC either really doesn?t know what to do to fix the problem or is just dragging their feet on the issue. The position limits are set regardless of volume/ OI so,  although the Chicago futures are the most exaggerated, on an average basis, those funds are WITHIN limits. Corn on the other hand shows the AVERAGE index fund is OVER their limits. There is a real question as to whether the index are the problem or not anyway, or more of symptom. Over the years they have been wonderfully stable and long using the futures as a hedge against currencies/ energies/ equities. The problem usually comes from (though not always) from ?hot spec $$?.  SO the CFTC is proposing another change,  that may actually make things worse. They will continue to report positions in 4 categories, but will combine the Specs with the Commercials?totally clouding that category, and add a new category for swaps. It is almost as if they think they can have only 4 categories. The industry has been begging for transparency, not necessarily more regs?this will make it worse/ impossible to track the specs. FWIW the Chicago futures are about +$1.18 over the cash market.

            Sales: Corn sales were plenty strong with 22.7 o/c and 37 myn n/c?beating expectations. Again the problem is not in sales it is in actual shipments. There are 2 weeks remaining and we need to AVERAGE over 90 myn bu/ week to hit USDA?IF we do what we have been doing (about 45 myn bu) that means that corn stocks will grow 90 myn on the next Sept report.

            Pro Farmer tour: Estimated the yields at 167 bpa vs. USDA?s 175. When they got to Iowa the crop ?looked GREAT? and got better the further north they went. Avg for the stops so far in Iowa are 188bpa, with many over 200. So far the Minnesota ave. is 202 with ratings from 189 to 249 / acre.

***Didja Know: Canadian ethanol mandates of 5% are being blamed on undermining the hog industry?..some things never change.

             Duane Disque or Brian Peiler                              Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson

             1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221                           1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

              or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell)  graingrowers@centurytel.net

                                                            GOOD MORNING!!!          

            Below are the best indicated market bids as of:   9:00  on      8/18/09

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

            US $$ is lower, crude is up just a touch. Corn ratings are still at 68% G-Ex. 40% of the corn is in the dough stage. That is ?6% vs. last year and ?24% vs. the 5 year average. 9% of the crop is dented which is down 3% vs. last year and 17% on the 5 year average. Pro farmer crop tour kicked off in Ohio finding 159.7 bpa vs. last years 148 (USDA est?d Ohio at 165. Estimated Black Layer (corn physiologically mature) is 9/30. Growers are less concerned about frost damaging the crop than they are about harvesting a very big, very wet crop. Note; Once corn hits black layer it is still about 30-35% moisture.  Minnesota could have their biggest corn crop ever. One estimate (not the Pro Farm tour) has them at 167 bpa statewide?and said that everywhere you look the crop looks GREAT!

            Wheat: Japan will be in tonite. Little known fact is that yesterday?s September ?10 futures were the first brick toward setting the 2010 CRC price! Overall the CRC average for this year remained at $4.92. CFTC?s Gensler is still not happy with the lack of convergence. We really didn?t see anything ?new? happen when the July went off the board. It was ?business as usual? as we have seen the last couple years. I think they will wait and see what the Sept does when it expires (FND is 8/31). Actually I don?t expect that they made any changes that will drastically improve convergence. They have just been playing around. SRW futures are still over $1 higher than SRW cash. It may take something like forced delivery, or changing the delivery point from Chicago to the Gulf. At any rate, we are too small to matter, all we can do is adjust the sails to prevailing breeze to get where we want to go?.

            Potash of Saskatchewan announced that Potash inventories are down 129m mt. The steps to get rid of excess inventory (reduced production) are apparently working. Also of interest is that the px of grain in Russia has been dropping. They won?t harvest near the crop they had last year due to drought, but they had so much carry over that stocks are still excessive. Weather in Aussie is HEATING up! The Northern territories (no wheat there), Queensland (usually about 2 myn mt) and NSW (up to 30-40% of the ave Aussie crop) have had temps up to 14? above normal. Temps hit over 102? in Queensland. They NEED rain particularly in the eastern half of the country. This will bear watching, and would make a nice set up for a Sept rally?.

***DIDJA KNOW: Especially for ?valley growers??the USDA has a program for up to $500m to build/ improve farm storage?might be worth checking out?

             Duane Disque or Brian Peiler                              Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson

             1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221                           1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

              or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell)  graingrowers@centurytel.net

                                                            GOOD MORNING!!!          

            Below are the best indicated market bids as of:   9:00  on      8/17/09

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

            Crude oil has taken a beating the last few sessions, with the summer ?driving season? nearly over, the economy still struggling?by the way did you know that in July US home loans failed at a record rate? The economy, and lack of jobs doesn?t seem to imply that $3.99 gas ($70 crude) is sustainable?.at least today. US $$ gained some strength and with the export inspections way below what is needed to maintain USDA export projections the market turned down sharply this morning. Beans are down .40+ after losing over .70 Friday. Wheats/ corn futures are all down about .11 to .14. In the case of corn, not only did we miss export shipments (we shipped a decent 40.8 myn bu, but we needed to ship over 70 to hit USDA projections), but the weather man says ?IDEAL? corn filling weather in the Midwest, and more ?ideal? weather in the forecast. What the lack of shipments mean is that we can increase the corn carryout, by whatever we ?miss? the shipments by?not market friendly. Corn crop tours will be on the ground scouting fields and counting ears and kernels. I can tell you that the few fields I have looked at locally, show the ears filled completely to the end. Last year there was about ?? to 1 ? ? of blank at the end of most all ears.

            Fed Reserve says that farmland values in at least 7  midwest states are strong/ stable, indicating a very strong Ag sector (watch out). Also reported this morning, was that there was some 47m growers signed up for the new ?ACRE? program. HEAVY participation in Illinois, Iowa, and Nebraska?I am sure there is good reason for that, wasn?t the program designed/ geared to the Mid west? CRC average price for August now rests at about $4.92.

            Heat/ dry starting to build in Aussie. I will start attaching our normal Aussie maps weekly as the ?Aussie watch? is officially on. With out good September rains, their crop prospects can drop very quickly. I would say the average market guess has them for about 23 myn mt of production today.

***Didja Know: 70% of the water used by Southern Nevada goes through sprinklers for golf courses and lawns?Narcolepsy is medical condition that causes people to sleep sometimes up to 18 hours/day. Philagrypnia is the opposite?these folks only need 3-4 hours sleep / night. 

             Duane Disque or Brian Peiler                              Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson

             1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221                           1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

              or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell)  graingrowers@centurytel.net

                                                            GOOD MORNING!!!          

            Below are the best indicated market bids as of:   9:00  on      8/14/09