Duane Disque or Brian Peiler Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 7/31/09
|
|
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn |
| ||
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
|
August |
5.05/ 10 |
|
6.86 |
.85 U |
5.99 |
.45 U |
110 |
136 |
|
September |
5.30/ 35 |
5.22 CUW |
6.91 |
.90 U |
6.04 |
.50 U |
110 |
|
|
|
October |
5.35/ 38 |
|
7 |
.85 Z |
6.15 |
.45 Z |
120 |
|
|
|
November |
5.40 |
|
7.05 |
.90 Z |
6.19 |
.50 Z |
120 |
|
|
December |
5.45 |
5.50 CZW |
7.10 |
.95 Z |
6.20 |
.55 Z |
|
|
|
January |
5.47 |
|
|
|
6.22 |
|
|
2009/ 138 |
|
February |
5.48 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2010/ 151 |
|
N/C 2010 |
5.55? |
6.04 CUW |
6.85 |
.30 U |
6.39 |
.20 CUW |
|
2011/ 157 |
|
|
N/C 2011 |
|
6.43 CNW |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
**Club premium: Buyers Call! |
Prem/Disc |
+10/ -15 |
Prem/ Disc |
+15/ -20 |
Canola: |
.145/ lb |
| ||
***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.
Crude is up, the $$ is stronger. One thing to keep in mind is the strength of the dollar not just on the world market, but vs. the Aussie $$ and Canadian $$. Today 1 US $ will buy you: $1.21 Aussie, $.108 Canadian, and .71 Euro. Rain is on the schedule for Montana/ Canada?in Montana will help put a nice finish on the spring wheat crops, and in Canada bring some relief to the drought they have been having. No doubt they are past the point where they will see production losses, quantifying today is hard. Spring wheat tour wrapped up indicating 46.2 bpa! This big production number also implies lower proteins.
Overnite Mexico booked 4.7 myn bu of US corn, and Japan bot 5.3 myn bu of variety; US, Canadian and Aussie wheat. Egypt?s GASC (Grain Authority Supply Commodity?they buy nearly all the wheat for import to Egypt) named a new vice chair?he is the guy that pulls the trigger on the wheat purchases. Last year Egypt bot about 5.1 myn mt or 183 myn bu of wheat. Russian wheat production will also be trimmed. Drought has taken an edge off of their yields and estimates are they could be down 5-7% in production. It seems that IGC has already calc?d this into their latest world S&D?.FWIW Russia is still carrying over about 21 myn tm (770 myn bu) from last year.
While were on the topic of carryouts: IF we hit the latest USDA numbers (they will give us fresh numbers on 8/12). For those that are not familiar with the term stocks to use?it is a ratio of how many bu we will start the year with BEFORE harvest in relation to the total estimated usage. US HRW stocks will increase about 19 myn mt. They do have domestic usage up 43 myn bu which seems a bit odd, and exports down 73. Stocks to use will be a very loose 32%. On SRW carryouts are about 4 myn bu less than last year (after a humongous crop). Domestic use, and exports are both predictably lower, resulting a carryout of 170 myn bu or 40% stocks to use. That means according to what we see right now, going into the 2010 crop year, we will be carrying IN 40% of our total needs! DNS, domestic usage is up 13 myn bu, and exports are showed as up 14 myn bu. Stocks to use is a more friendly 24%. FWIW?IF we use the same amount of DNS domestically, and our exports match last year, the stocks to use jumps from 24% to 33%. Also to give you an idea of market impact. The market considers 10% to 15% to be tight.
HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!!!
***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***