Duane Disque or Brian Peiler Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 7/27/09
|
|
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn |
| ||
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
|
August |
5.15 |
|
6.80 |
.85 U |
5.96 |
.45 U |
110 |
129.30 |
|
September |
5.25/ 30 |
5.20 CUW |
6.85 |
.90 U |
6.01 |
.50 U |
120 |
|
|
|
October |
5.35/ 40 |
|
6.94 |
.85 Z |
6.13 |
.45 Z |
120 |
|
|
|
November |
5.42 |
|
6.99 |
.90 Z |
6.18 |
.50 Z |
120 |
|
|
December |
5.45 |
5.47 CZW |
7.04 |
.95 Z |
6.23 |
.55 Z |
|
|
|
January |
5.50 |
|
7.07 |
|
6.26 |
|
|
2009/ 132 |
|
February |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2010/ 145 |
|
N/C 2010 |
|
6.03 CUW |
6.79 |
.30 U |
6.37 |
.20 CUW |
|
2011/ 149 |
|
|
N/C 2011 |
|
6.40 CNW |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
**Club premium: Buyers Call! |
Prem/Disc |
+10/ -15 |
Prem/ Disc |
+15/ -20 |
Canola: |
.145/ lb |
| ||
***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.
Crude is up a touch, so is the $$. Futures called lower, but have traded up just a bit all day. COT held no real surprises. Specs are short almost an entire SRW crop, funds are long 2 of them! Spec position on corn is a bit smaller than I expected to see (they are only short 100 myn bu). There is PLENTY of nervousness over this supplemental survey. Gov?t would only do it, if they suspected an problem/ error to start with. It could easily turn out to be market neutral by increasing yields/ decreasing acres. I guess we?ll see and let the market sort it out. Meanwhile the dairy/ beef feeders still can?t make any money with corn at these levels. Export sales have been ok, but just ok won?t be good enough (see China below). Shipment report was VERY encouraging for corn this week, as we hit 52.2 myn bu (IF we can maintain that the next 5 weeks we will hit the USDA number). Wheat was disappointing with only 10.7 myn bu in shipments.
Over the weekend Russia sold more wheat (2.2 myn bu) to Egypt at $4.85/ bu. China?s domestic market for corn is too weak, so they will continue to auction off corn (another 2 myn mt or 70 myn bu) tomorrow. They have a total of about 35 myn bu in ?reserves? that they would like to move. South Korea and the Indonesia would be the most likely destinations?.FWIW the Chinese gov?t bot this corn last fall for $5.58/ bu. Sounds like our old ?reserve program?.
World weather: The US Midwest will see continued GREAT weather for crops (though some would like more heat). The Northern Plains will also see great weather for crops (Spring wheat crop tour kicks off today, most are expecting to see some very nice DNS crops spring wheat is rated 73% G- excellent). Monsoons have let up in India. They are still a behind on rains though. Warmer/ drier as a rule in N. China, but showers are on the way, and hot/ dry in central China. Cooler in Argie, but still dry. The FSU/ Ukraine/ Europe will see continued hot/ dry. This will effect their corn more than wheat, still expect to see some reductions in wheat production.
***Didja Know: Will Rogers: Eventually you will reach a point where you stop lying about your age and start bragging about it?.
***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***