Duane Disque or Brian Peiler                              Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson

             1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221                           1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

              or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell)  graingrowers@centurytel.net

                                                            GOOD MORNING!!!          

            Below are the best indicated market bids as of:   9:00  on      7/17/09

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

             Futures markets seemed content to slide into the weekend, take some profits and then plot a course for next week. But an hour into the session and we are seeing strength with the wheat futures up 11. However with cash prices falling, basis levels have too, that is definitely not a good sign. Exporter bids are thin, and they don?t show much desire to own wheat today. It seems a slippery slope. NOAA says that El Nino will strengthen and August should be hotter than normal?but they are only projecting a ?moderate? event. They also said that El Nino events cause more severe weather in the US when they occur late fall/ Winter.

            China announced that they will auction off beans, wheat and corn. This is somewhat of an unusual move considering where world prices are, implication is that China sees values dropping. The China is projecting their economy to continue to grow at a sizzling 8.5% rate. Contrast that with Japan having a debt equal to 200% of GDP, the US at 360% of GDP and many Euro countries at 100% of GDP, and you can understand the concern over the strength of the $$$. While a weaker is MUCH better for us, it is much worse for those holding our paper. South Korea booked 4.3 myn bu of US corn, and will be back for more. Aussie?s CBH is making changes, readying for the upcoming harvest. They are tweaking storage rates, freight payment schedules, and will try an auction system for freight movements?all of this is new to the Aussie grower. Strategie Grains in Europe tweaked their production estimates upward slightly. Just points out there are no main weather concerns there. Here are some weather ?snippets? from Canada/ Aussie:

Canada: Topsoil moisture conditions improved due to significant rainfall received across many areas of the province last week, according to Saskatchewan Agriculture's weekly Crop Report. Rainfall was variable, however, and although some areas received as much as 145 mm, others received nothing. Crop development is being reported as one per cent ahead of normal, 39 per cent normal and 60 per cent behind for fall cereals. The average temperature in Regina overall was 14.7 cvs. A normal of 18.8.

Aussie:  Australian Crop Forecasters (ACF) has the OZ wheat crop pegged at 22.6 MMT (July 10th report).  This assumes "average weather".  But with the El Ni?o chatter they've played around with the downside potential if they get a dry finish (August forward) and they potentially could see a wheat crop of only 17.0 MMT.  In my opinion it's too soon to panic, the SOI has been rising here in July, not falling. Here's a brief update on western VIC and a few of photos from Kaniva. 

Things are looking bloody good out here.  A top start to the season, with some farmers saying they will be right until mid-September without any more rain, and some will even get a crop of some sort without any more rain at all.

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!!!