Duane Disque or Brian Peiler Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 7/13/09
|
|
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn |
| ||
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
|
July |
5.54 |
|
7.10 |
.95 U |
6.06 |
.45 U |
110 |
137 |
|
August |
5.60/ 65 |
|
7.15 |
1.00 U |
6.11 |
.50 U |
110 |
|
|
|
September |
5.70 |
5.34 CUW |
7.15 |
1.00 U |
6.11 |
.50 U |
120 |
|
|
|
October |
5.75 |
|
7.17 |
.95 Z |
6.26 |
.48 Z |
120 |
|
|
November |
5.75 |
|
7.22 |
1.00 Z |
6.31 |
.53 Z |
|
|
|
December |
5.75 |
5.60 CZW |
7.22 |
1.05 Z |
6.36 |
.58 Z |
|
2009/ 137 |
|
January |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2010/ 150 |
|
N/C 2010 |
|
6.07 CUW |
6.78 |
.30 U |
6.42 |
.20 CUW |
|
2011/ 156 |
|
|
N/C 2011 |
|
6.40 CNW |
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**Club premium: Buyers Call! |
Prem/Disc |
+10/ -15 |
Prem/ Disc |
+15/ -20 |
Canola: |
.14/ lb |
| ||
***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.
Crude is up a bit, the $ is down. Crop scores came back pretty much unch?d from last weeks numbers. Corn crop is rated 71% G-Ex vs. 64% last year. Corn progress says 16% of corn is silked vs. a 5 year avg of 30%. An indication of by state progress: Illinois is 11% vs. 12% last year and 57% on 5 year ave. Indiana is 11% vs. 7% last year and 38% on 5 year ave. Iowa is 6% vs. 1% last year and 18% on 5 year ave. Last night US sold 4.7 myn bu of corn to ?unknown?. Winter wheat is rated at 66% harvested. USDA rated the Canadian wheat crop at 23.5 myn mt vs. 26.8 last year. Stats Canada won?t release an estimate till 8/21.
Brazil may need to move some corn into export markets. Storage of the upcoming crop is a huge concern. Space is tight, and the crop looks good. Aussie crop conditions look VERY good right now. Some early projections are for wheat production up 6% vs. last year. As I understand it, September is pretty much a make/ break month for them, but today the crop is in very good condition. Aussie also started the first sales for the upcoming crop year with a 3.6 myn bu sale overnight.
Odds-n-Ends: There has been lots of talk about spec limits/ limitation. As with ethanol there are plenty of arguments for/ against. For now, lets just be concerned with the impact of position limits. There are plenty of ways around the limits. The only thing that would be harmful to the prices we see would be a sudden change or enforcement of limits?that is NOT likely. Index funds have been very consistent and steady in what they own. The risk is the spec position. After the last sell off they are sitting on ?plenty of dry powder? and will be looking for an opportunity to re-enter the market. Right now they are net short Chicago Wheat and have the one of the smallest positions in corn that they have held all year. Today fundamentals, timing and harvest are against them?but they will be back.
***Didja Know: The US supplies 70% of the wheat to Columbia. Our FTA never got done, and Congress doesn?t seem to be in a hurry to complete it. Canada says they will have a FTA before the end of the year. What?s at risk? Over $87 myn in wheat market share. EXXON will make their first significant investment in Bio-fuels. They will spend $600 myn investing in fuel from Algae??There are 2 ways to live life; as if nothing is a miracle, as if everything is a miracle? Albert Einstein?
***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***