Morrow County Grain Growers                                Pendleton Grain Growers

             Duane Disque or Brian Peiler                              Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson

             1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221                           1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

              or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell)  graingrowers@centurytel.net

                                                            GOOD MORNING!!!          

            Below are the best indicated market bids as of:   9:00  on      7/10/09

 

SWW

SRW

                DNS

              HRW

  Barley

        Corn

 

Month

Portland

Chicago

Portland

Basis

Portland

Basis

Portland

Cash Px

 

July

5.45

 

7.11

1.05  U

6.04

.55  U

110

132

 

August

5.50

 

7.11

1.05  U

6.04

.55   U

110

 

 

September

5.55

5.19  CUW

7.11

1.05  U

6.09

.60   U

120

 

 

October

5.60

 

7.11

.95   Z

6.11

.50  Z

        120

 

 

November

5.65

 

7.16

1.00   Z

6.16

.55   Z

 

 

 

December

5.68

5.45   CZW

7.21

1.05   Z

6.21

.60   Z

 

2009/ 132

 

January

5.70

 

 

 

 

 

 

2010/ 149

 

N/C 2010

 

 6.02  CUW

6.71

.30  U

6.33

.20 CUW

 

2011/ 156

 

N/C 2011

 

6.26   CNW

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

**Club premium: Buyers Call!

 Prem/Disc

+10/ -15

Prem/ Disc

+15/ -20

 Canola:

  .14/ lb

 

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

             WOW?well its been one of those mornings! The USDA reports were pretty much bearish across the line, futures are lower everywhere. It will be interesting to see if the market can make a late surge to push to end the day near even. Sales report for the week showed below average numbers for corn at 27 myn bu (although there was an additional 16 myn booked for n/c. Wheat had a strong week with 21.5 myn bu sold 8 myn DNS, 4.9 HRW 1.2 SRW and 6.7 SWW.

            Now on to the USDA reports. SEE ATTACHMENT for updated S&D?s. There were lots of changes and the market will be sorting through these new numbers for the next couple of sessions; corn carryouts increased 78 myn  MORE than ave trade guess at 1.77 byn bu. Noted decreases in ethanol usage and feed usage. We knew there would be big reductions, but these were larger than average trade guesses. The 2+ myn more harvested corn acres results in 525 myn bu more than last month. I think the market was expecting something more like 475. One number that jumped out at me was the yield number they were using for corn?they are still using 153.4 bpa (same as last year) with corn rated much higher than last year?this is a number that appears way to low. If we end up with 80 myn HARVESTED acres and ave say 157 (3.6 bpa more), that is an additional 288 myn bu of corn?WATCH THIS NUMBER!

            Wheat; C/O increased 10 myn bu. USDA reflected the 6/30 report and place 1.2 myn more acres on the slate, but also took yields up .7 bpa. There was a large change in some classes of wheat exports; HRW exports seen down 73 myn bu, DNS up 18, SRW down 63 myn bu and SWW up 14. SRW also saw a sharp drop in domestic usage (reduced feed) by another 27 myn bu. All of this resulted in sharp increases in HRW/ DNS carryout stocks.

            WA (Western Australia) is planning to build an 50 myn gallon ethanol plant. Planning to use high starch products and feed grains. Plant would require 17.8 myn bu/ year?while on ethanol the RFA is challenging the EPA?s last assessment on total net gain by using ethanol vs. oil. You might remember the EPA wanted to use land use changes in Brazil as the market dictated px increases in corn. The RFA now wants EPA to also consider the consequences of additional land use ie; tar sands, oil shale etc.

***Didja Know: The EIA (Energy Info Agency) says that by 2030 42% of liquid fuel growth will come from ?unconventional sources? such as tar sands, shale oil, bio fuels etc. Goldman Sach rec?d $10 byn in US Treasuries 6 months ago. Will set aside 44.2% aside to pay compensation/ benefits (total of $17.9 byn). AS of end of March they had 27,898 employees?meaning the average employee would get $642,000 (from Bloomberg).  HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!!!

***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***