Duane Disque or Brian Peiler                              Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson

             1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221                           1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

              or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell)  graingrowers@centurytel.net

                                                            GOOD MORNING!!!          

            Below are the best indicated market bids as of:   9:00  on      7/31/09

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

            Crude is up, the $$ is stronger. One thing to keep in mind is the strength of the dollar not just on the world market, but vs. the Aussie $$ and Canadian $$. Today 1 US $ will buy you: $1.21 Aussie, $.108 Canadian, and .71 Euro. Rain is on the schedule for Montana/ Canada?in Montana will help put a nice finish on the spring wheat crops, and in Canada bring some relief to the drought they have been having. No doubt they are past the point where they will see production losses, quantifying today is hard. Spring wheat tour wrapped up indicating 46.2 bpa! This big production number also implies lower proteins.

            Overnite Mexico booked 4.7 myn bu of US corn, and Japan bot 5.3 myn bu of variety; US, Canadian and Aussie wheat. Egypt?s GASC (Grain Authority Supply Commodity?they buy nearly all the wheat for import to Egypt) named a new vice chair?he is the guy that pulls the trigger on the wheat purchases. Last year Egypt bot about 5.1 myn mt or 183 myn bu of wheat. Russian wheat production will also be trimmed. Drought has taken an edge off of their yields and estimates are they could be down 5-7% in production. It seems that IGC has already calc?d this into their latest world S&D?.FWIW Russia is still carrying over about 21 myn tm (770 myn bu) from last year.

            While were on the topic of carryouts: IF we hit the latest USDA numbers (they will give us fresh numbers on 8/12). For those that are not familiar with the term stocks to use?it is a ratio of how many bu we will start the year with BEFORE harvest in relation to the total estimated usage. US HRW stocks will increase about 19 myn mt. They do have domestic usage up 43 myn bu which seems a bit odd, and exports down 73. Stocks to use will be a very loose 32%. On SRW carryouts are about 4 myn bu less than last year (after a humongous crop). Domestic use, and exports are both predictably lower, resulting a carryout of 170 myn bu or 40% stocks to use. That means according to what we see right now, going into the 2010 crop year, we will be carrying IN 40% of our total needs! DNS, domestic usage is up 13 myn bu, and exports are showed as up 14 myn bu. Stocks to use is a more friendly 24%. FWIW?IF we use the same amount of DNS domestically, and our exports match last year, the stocks to use jumps from 24% to 33%. Also to give you an idea of market impact. The market considers 10% to 15% to be tight.

                                                            HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!!!

             Duane Disque or Brian Peiler                              Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson

             1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221                           1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

              or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell)  graingrowers@centurytel.net

                                                            GOOD MORNING!!!          

            Below are the best indicated market bids as of:   9:00  on      7/30/09

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

            Crude is up hard, $$ a bit weaker. Futures opened up ?smokin??with wheats up in the teens, beans up 60 and corn up a dime. 1 hour into the session and things are softening, especially in the wheats. Sales report this morning showed good sales for corn with 19 myn bu for ?old crop?, and 30 myn bu for new crop. We only have August left in the o/c slot. We are sitting at 1.817 byn bu sold vs. a USDA projection of 1.8, so we have already hit our sales number, but shipments are lagging. Wheat sales were STRONG at 21 myn bu. This is the first time this marketing year, we have hit our sales objectives. It would be nice to have 25% or more of our sales done by the end of August. North Dakota wheat tour keeps finding a ?bountiful? harvest potential?crop ain?t in the bin yet. DNS estimates are running 44.6 bpa, which is +10 bpa vs. last year. Cali updated their carbon scores for sugar cane based ethanol, numbers look MUCH more favorable. And, its in the news again today?CFTC Gensler (who came from Goldman Sachs) says they are ?committed to making changes?. Posting limits, and enforcing them, more oversight on exemptions, more ?due diligence? and possible re-classification of hedgers/ traders. WKUP?.

            The IGC says world wheat c/o stocks will be the highest since 2001-02. Ending carryout stocks will be a whopping 174 myn mt (thanks mostly to China/ Russia)?wait till they get their hands on some varieties that yield and produce quality. They increased corn production by 13  myn mt vs. last month, but are still 6 myn mt lower than last year. The all important number, the carryout will be 133 myn mt vs. 145 last year. Egypt was in last night and bot 8.8 myn bu of French wheat at $4.95, and 2 myn bu of US SRW @$4.84. Both are FOB values for August TOS. Chinese crushers are holding out for lower pxes. The Chinese gov?t was not able to sell any of the 18 myn bu of beans offered for auction. They will keep trying lowering their target till its gone.

***Didja Know: Scared of flying? Statistics show, the odds of dying in a place crash are about 1 : 15,000,000, the odds of dying in a car wreck are about 1 : 237?Costa Rica has more variety of birds and mammals than all of the US and Canada combined.

             Duane Disque or Brian Peiler                              Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson

             1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221                           1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

              or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell)  graingrowers@centurytel.net

                                                            GOOD MORNING!!!          

            Below are the best indicated market bids as of:   9:00  on      7/28/09

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

            $$ is down and the futures may find some strength in that, otherwise it looks to be a mostly neutral day. The main drivers in this market are unchanged, and with no new input, we just drift.  Exporters bids vary considerably?with some posting in the $4 range for August this am. Corn is on pace with last years crop, and is now rated 705 G-Ex (4% better than last year). 93% of the spring wheat is headed out, but we are still behind the 5 year ave. Tonight Japan will be tendering for 3.6 myn bu of US wheat, along with a variety of wheat from our competitors.

            The heat is being turned up on the CME to ?do more? to bring some relevance to the relationship between SRW and the futures markets. Steps that they have taken: (start this month) differential storage rates, more delivery points. The differential storage rates will increase/ decrease based on the ?carry?. The guys from over at the CFTC say that ?lack of convergence is unacceptable?. One other item that ?might? be tried is to settle the delivery month contract against an index?I think they will wait till at least the September option, to see if they are gaining ground on the convergence. Big changes will cause more volatility.

            Paki gov?t announced that they are on a record pace for ?buying? up domestic wheat. They have already bought 2x as much as this time last year, and said they will stand in there and own as much as the farmers want to sell. They have been working hard to encourage domestic production and help growers?.most Pakistani?s live on less than $2/ day. Aussie?s ability to deliver a quality product on time was under review. Indonesian buyers in particular are concerned about a possible repeat of last year. Russian wheat is at least available, the quality is much poorer, but it is also up to  $90/ ton cheaper. I believe that with a free market down there, that last year was probably just ?growing pains? and they will get it figured out.

***Didja Know: More Will Rogers: The older you get the fewer things seem worth waiting in line for?Some people try to turn back their odometers. Not me, I want people to know ?why? I look this way?I have traveled a long way, and some of the roads weren?t paved?.

             Duane Disque or Brian Peiler                              Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson

             1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221                           1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

              or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell)  graingrowers@centurytel.net

                                                            GOOD MORNING!!!          

            Below are the best indicated market bids as of:   9:00  on      7/27/09

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

            Crude is up a touch, so is the $$. Futures called lower, but have traded up just a bit all day. COT held no real surprises. Specs are short almost an entire SRW crop, funds are long 2 of them! Spec position on corn is a bit smaller than I expected to see (they are only short 100 myn bu). There is PLENTY of nervousness over this supplemental survey. Gov?t would only do it, if they suspected an problem/ error to start with. It could easily turn out to be market neutral by increasing yields/ decreasing acres. I guess we?ll see and let the market sort it out. Meanwhile the dairy/ beef feeders still can?t make any money with corn at these levels. Export sales have been ok, but just ok won?t be good enough (see China below). Shipment report was VERY encouraging for corn this week, as we hit 52.2 myn bu (IF we can maintain that the next 5 weeks we will hit the USDA number). Wheat was disappointing with only 10.7 myn bu in shipments.

            Over the weekend Russia sold more wheat (2.2 myn bu) to Egypt at $4.85/ bu. China?s domestic market for corn is too weak, so they will continue to auction off corn (another 2 myn mt or 70 myn bu) tomorrow. They have a total of about 35 myn bu in ?reserves? that they would like to move. South Korea and the Indonesia would be the most likely destinations?.FWIW the Chinese gov?t bot this corn last fall for $5.58/ bu. Sounds like our old ?reserve program?.

            World weather: The US Midwest will see continued GREAT weather for crops (though some would like more heat). The Northern Plains will also see great weather for crops (Spring wheat crop tour kicks off today, most are expecting to see some very nice DNS crops spring wheat is rated 73% G- excellent). Monsoons have let up in India. They are still a behind on rains though. Warmer/ drier as a rule in N. China, but showers are on the way, and hot/ dry in central China. Cooler in Argie, but still dry. The FSU/ Ukraine/ Europe will see continued hot/ dry. This will effect their corn more than wheat, still expect to see some reductions in wheat production.

***Didja Know: Will Rogers: Eventually you will reach a point where you stop lying about your age and start bragging about it?.

             Duane Disque or Brian Peiler                              Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson

             1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221                           1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

              or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell)  graingrowers@centurytel.net

                                                            GOOD MORNING!!!          

            Below are the best indicated market bids as of:   9:00  on      7/24/09

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

            Volatility scale is HIGH. Markets are giving back most of yesterday?s gains. We have found a trading range, but it sure does seem wide. Portland still doesn?t seem to want any wheat, and the floor is where? We have one exporter no bid for July, another that doesn?t want any barges for July, August or September. Market is REALLY thin. USDA added another interesting twist to the ?special survey? saga?they will do NO field surveys on the spring wheat/ durum relying totally on farm surveys. That should be interesting, I learned some computer lingo long ago something like GIGO?we?ll see. The calendar says there is one week left in July, and now the market is talking about frost worries on corn?yeah it?s a stretch, but that?s where we are in this market. That will help you understand the volatility in this beast. Record yields were ?04 when the US averaged 160.4. Today; Illinois, Iowa and Indiana are all behind normal, Minnesota is even, Nebraska is ahead?.kinda makes you wonder if even with late plantings if they didn?t try a bit longer season corn (or the normal stuff) in the I states.

            CFTC says they will ?clamp down on participation by the Index funds?. Index funds have been our friends, very stable and only long. Changes to that, will be price negative at least in the short term. This thing is beginning to look like the Farm Bill, its been dragging on for over a year now. Today their most likely attempt is variable storage rates?compelled loadout and switching delivery points to the Gulf are not likely to be recommended. Car makers are asking the EPA to NOT approve higher ethanol rates till more testing is done. We are currently at a ?blend wall?. Ethanol is also getting political pressure from GMA, and various consumer groups. Without higher blend rates corn usage to ethanol will stall out.

            China will auction off 2 myn mt of corn on 7/28. This will complete their sales. There has been lots of talk about this El Nino that is forming. Normally El Nino?s are assoc with strong ? SOI readings, today that isn?t happening. IF it does develop, it is seen as hotter/ drier in the East Aussie, not so bad in the West. MOST of the Aussie exports come from the west.

***Didja Know: Will Rogers: ?Good judgment comes from experience, and a lot of that comes from bad judgment??.Here?s one for all those leaders/ would be leaders out there: If your riding ahead of the herd, take a look back every now and then to make sure its still there?

                                                HAVE A SAFE AND GREAT WEEKEND!!!

             Duane Disque or Brian Peiler                              Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson

             1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221                           1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

              or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell)  graingrowers@centurytel.net

                                                            GOOD MORNING!!!          

            Below are the best indicated market bids as of:   9:00  on      7/23/09

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

            An announcement by USDA that they will ?re-survey? 7 states before the next report (8/12) was well received by the futures pits. NASS will re-survey Illinois, Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, Kentucky, Ohio and Pennsylvania?.Every one knows how much farmers like these surveys, and after the last round of reports, it would be truly AMAZING if somehow there were more acres! I wonder if you were a farmer and got a survey after seeing the price crash, what would you report? Today the market is factoring in at least a drop of ? myn acres. Truth is NO ONE has any idea, but it?s a place to start, and the market is already dealing with potential adjustments by the USDA. FWIW IF IF we use 160 bpa yield, a reduction of ? myn acres would only be about 73 myn bu. It?s not chump change, but when you are looking at a potential carryout of 2 + byn bu carryout, it doesn?t fix much either. Dairy industry is still using red ink on the balance sheet. At any rate the Corn futures are up 12-14 on the news?the market was probably oversold and needed more consolidation anyway.

            Export Sales report was disappointing. Corn sales were only 29.8 myn bu (we will still hit USDA projections for sales?but there does not appear to be ANY way that we meet shipments, carryouts will be tweaked). Wheat sales were also disappointing at only 12.6 myn bu. Traders were hoping for 11 to 18.4 myn bu. 1.8 DNS, 6.5 HRW, 2.9 SRW and 1.3 SWW. Our customers will get some GREAT pxing buy opportunities in August. Bunge reported earnings will be down 58% from projections (they said fertilizer was the biggest drag).

            We talked about Indian grain production. They will set a new record for wheat production at 80.6 myn mt vs. last years 78.6. In rice, also a record at 99.15 vs. lyr?s 96.7 myn mt. South Korea will try out some Indonesian corn booking 2 myn bu. Those following the progress of GMO wheat may find this especially interesting; Brazil?s experiments with GMO corn have been ?amaizing?. They doubled the GMO acres expected this year in their 2^nd corn crop, and traders expect over 50% next year. Here is the interesting part: Last year Brazil produced 60 myn mt, exporting about 10 myn, this year after playing with GMO they will have over 70 myn, exporting 20 myn mt. 20 myn mt is 787 myn bu. AVERAGE production in Brazil is 60 bpa, Argie averages 100 bpa, in the US we are gonna push 160. If for example Brazil is able to get to 120 bpa, and can export 70 myn mt= 2.7 BYN bu?the US is forecast to export 1.9 byn this year.

             Duane Disque or Brian Peiler                              Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson

             1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221                           1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

              or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell)  graingrowers@centurytel.net

                                                            GOOD MORNING!!!          

            Below are the best indicated market bids as of:   9:00  on      7/21/09

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

            Hmmm another day, same story. Crude up a little, US $ is still weak. Futures are all lower again this morning. We have seen this happen, then right at the close either rally to post a small positive number, or on the days when futures were up, drop back toward the original starting point. What we have seen the last week or so is some pretty solid consolidation as the market finds buoyancy after the latest round of reports. The question is; will the next leg be up or down? Some things to think about:

            Corn; Pollination, though not complete will be in the next 7-10 days and it seems you couldn?t hardly ask for better weather, especially consider, the cool/ wet start. Crop scores are still 71% G-Ex. As far as the crop is concerned the only big fear/ bargaining chip left is: growing degree days, and the talk of ?what about an early frost?? For now the crop appears to be made, and the yield estimates will need to be increased vs. the last USDA numbers. So strength will come from where? IF the economy shows dramatic improvement we will see increased usage toward ethanol, also the feed/ dairy industry will start to heal also pulling on demand. Otherwise it really only leaves increased exports. A weak $$ is helpful, but even the $$ seems range bound today. We watch the export meter, but its like watching a pot waiting to boil, so far not much activity. Mexico and Egypt both bought corn (both old crop and new crop) but the sales didn?t appear to be ?bargain hunting?. We are not yet at the bottom.

            Wheat; Overall world wheat production continues to get tweaks, but still no major problems anywhere. We have some gains, some losses that roughly offset each other. It appears the balance of the US crop will get harvested without much trouble, and overall quality has been good. We do have the chance that the Aussie crop will struggle into harvest. Today it seems a stretch, but is an unknown. Otherwise it is exports. We also have some spec short covering that at some point will help the futures post harvest. Then there is the big ?? What will growers do with CRC? Today its routine stuff; Japan booked 3.2 myn bu on their weekly tender. Its dark and I can?t feel the floor yet?.

            China sold about 1/3 of their corn from state auction, still have 56 myn bu to offer. India?s rice planting is 76% complete vs. 51% avg. The AWB halted all trading, but did not offer any explanation.

***Didja Know: More from Will Rogers: There are 3 kinds of men; the ones that learn by reading. The few that learn by observation, and the rest that have to pee on the electric fence and find out for themselves?.

             Duane Disque or Brian Peiler                              Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson

             1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221                           1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

              or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell)  graingrowers@centurytel.net

                                                            GOOD MORNING!!!          

            Below are the best indicated market bids as of:   9:00  on      7/20/09

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

            The $$ is lower, crude is up a touch. Logistics in Portland are already getting plenty interesting. Pushing barges around searching for homes will create some interesting markets to be sure. Portland still acts like they do NOT want any wheat, excepting good quality DNS. Fortunately that?s whats coming out of the fields right now for the most part. Futures were called higher, but with no major weather concerns anywhere (particularly US CORN COUNTRY), the market is struggling for traction. In fact the weather man says corn country will get more GREAT weather. Futures are all red right now.

            COT report showed the specs actually bot (reduced their short position) by 30 myn bu?.they are still running a very large red position of ?220 myn bu. The Index funds are long a WHOPPING 810 MYN bu! The specs sold about 260 myn bu of corn and are now currently only about 20 myn bu short. The funds are maintaining their 1.566 byn bu long. Interesting thing is; IF the we took the number of funds and divided the total fund position by that number?.the funds, even though they own 2 US SRW crops, on average are NOT over limits! Whereas if you did the same thing on corn, the average index fund is holding over 10m caks. Clearly the system is in need of adjustment! When the funds can hold 2 x the crop size in paper and be within limits on one commodity, but only hold 12% of another commodity, and on average be over limit by about 60% something is wrong with the system.

            Inspection report showed ?Good? numbers shipped ex the US for wheat. With 2.6 DNS, 11.1 HRW, 1.9 SRW and 3.6 SWW totaling 19 myn bu for the week. Corn shipments were too light to get the job done. We only shipped 36.8 myn bu. The start of the new corn year starting Sept 1, time is getting short, and its sure beginning to look like we won?t hit the USDA export shipments. Meaning more increased c/o.

***Didja Know: Wisdom from Will Rogers: Never slap a man who?s chewing tabacco, never kick a cow chip on a hot day. There are 2 theories about arguing with a woman?neither works. Never miss a good chance to shut up. Always drink upstream from the herd. If you find yourself in a hole, quit digging. The quickest way to double your money is to fold it in half and put back in your pocket.

             Duane Disque or Brian Peiler                              Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson

             1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221                           1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

              or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell)  graingrowers@centurytel.net

                                                            GOOD MORNING!!!          

            Below are the best indicated market bids as of:   9:00  on      7/17/09