Duane Disque or Brian Peiler Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 6/24/09
|
|
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn |
| ||
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
|
July |
5.67 |
5.35 CNW |
7.65 |
.85 U |
6.43 |
.40 U |
110 |
151 |
|
August |
5.67 |
|
7.65 |
.85 U |
6.43 |
.40 U |
110 |
|
|
|
September |
5.72 |
5.63 CUW |
7.65 |
.85 U |
6.45 |
.45 U |
120 |
|
|
|
October |
5.77 |
|
7.70 |
.80 Z |
6.57 |
.38 U |
120 |
|
|
November |
5.82 |
|
7.75 |
.85 Z |
6.63 |
.43 Z |
|
|
|
December |
5.87 |
5.88 CZW |
7.80 |
.90 Z |
6.68 |
.48 Z |
|
2009/ 157 |
|
January |
5.92 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2010/ 161 |
|
N/C 2010 |
|
6.32 CUW |
7.32 |
.30 MUW |
6.76 |
.20 CUW |
|
2011/ 165 |
|
|
N/C 2011 |
|
6.65 CNW |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
**Club premium: Buyers Call! |
Prem/Disc |
+10/ -15 |
Prem/ Disc |
+15/ -20 |
Canola: |
.145/ lb |
| ||
***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.
Please note the change in months above!!!
US $$ is stronger this morning, but that will offset somewhat by a little cheaper ocean freight. Panamax rates have slipped on reduced exports of grain/ coal. Large specs continue to liquidate, and we are seeing some new shorts. Sub committee report on impact of Index funds on the market will be negative to futures, especially if CME is forced to enforce trading limits. The CME says that findings by independent studies by CBOT, CME, Informa, and GAO differ with the subcommittee report?Heres the deal: The MARKET can handle the extra volume. The problem occurs when the rules are changed mid stream: Facts: In 2004 index funds held 30m caks, while in 2008 that number mushroomed to 220m caks. Basis on SRW went from .13 to $1.53. Index funds were supposed to be limited to 6500 caks each, but these were ignored/ not enforced (some funds held up to 53,000 caks). The argument from the ?4? was that the funds were responding to other factors in the world such as Record growth, Record tight stocks etc. and the market worked, to bring supply back into line with demand. In any event, IF the index funds are forced to get in line with 6500 cak limit, it will BEARISH futures. For example there are over 1700 corn caks offered for sale in the DEC slot, just above today?s prices.
USDA report will be out next TUESDAY morning! Futures will be closed FRIDAY. Export Sales tallied 27 myn for Corn (which is on pace, but the actual shipments are behind?like wheat was all year). Wheat Sales totaled a nice 13.5 myn bu; 2.9 DNS, 5.4 HRW, 2.3 SRW and 2.9 SWW.
While the Canadian Spring wheat plantings are up 7% vs. last year, world wheat production is estimated down about 40 myn mt, vs last year. The problem is, demand is off more than that. Jordan did buy 3.6 myn Black Sea wheat, and Egypt continues to improve the inspection and quality control on all imports. Aussie?s CBH says they expect WA (Western Australia) production to increase by nearly 50% by 2025.
***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***