Duane Disque or Brian Peiler Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 6/15/09
|
|
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn |
| ||
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
|
June |
5.86 |
|
7.99 |
.80 N |
6.63 |
.33 N |
110 |
160 |
|
July |
5.91 |
5.74 CNW |
7.99 |
.80 U |
6.63 |
.33 N |
110 |
|
|
|
August |
6.01 |
|
7.99 |
.80 U |
6.69 |
.28 U |
120 |
|
|
|
September |
6.06 |
6.03 CUW |
7.99 |
.80 U |
6.74 |
.33 U |
120 |
|
|
October |
6.11 |
|
8.05 |
.75 Z |
6.82 |
.25 Z |
|
|
|
November |
6.16 |
|
8.10 |
.80 Z |
6.87 |
.30 Z |
|
2009/ 165 |
|
December |
6.21 |
6.30 CZW |
8.15 |
.85 Z |
6.92 |
|
|
2010/ 168 |
|
N/C 2010 |
|
6.75 CUW |
7.77 |
.30 MUW |
7.05 |
.20 CNW |
|
2011/ 170 |
|
|
N/C 2011 |
|
7.11 CNW |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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**Club premium: Buyers Call! |
Prem/Disc |
+12/ -20 |
Prem/ Disc |
+10/ -20 |
Canola: |
.17/ lb n/c |
| ||
***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.
US $$ is up, and futures continue to see long liquidation. If it sounds just like Friday, that?s what it looks like. Wheats are off 8-12, while corn is off another 15 and beans are down 35-40. Weather man sez we ought to have good crop weather for the next 3-5 minimum. Corn ratings are expected to be 70-72% Good to excellent on this afternoons report. Negative bean sales 2 weeks in a row are not helping. Fundamentally the grains are very bearish. The carries in the market make it even harder for specs to justify trying to ?roll?. For example rolling from Chic July to Sept will cost a cool .29/ bu. If you wanna go to Dec its another .26, and March would be another .18. I am not saying that some of them won?t do it, it will just be painful for them. Technically, the charts keep seeking and violating levels of support. Corn crashed through 1 level of support in each of the last trading sessions, and with the July delivery not far off, the remaining longs will feel pressure to DO something. COT report wasn?t a lot of help since the data on the last report was only good through last Tuesday, and so will not have any of the major market moves we saw the back half of last week. By next week (we will have 2 weeks worth of data) you will see some MAJOR shifts in futures/ options ownership.
On the 11th Russia/ Egypt reached an agreement to increase Russian grain sales. The Egyptian gov?t is also investigating whether Egyptian traders used forged documents to import the Russian wheat in question. There is apparently some concern over corruption on the Egyptian side of the trade. Egypt also announced that they will build more grain storage capacity. Up to 25% of the grain they import eventually spoils between delivery and distribution. I believe the Egyptians will also find it much easier to manage their purchases if they can ?smooth? out the demand curve.
New export house in the PNW will have the capacity to ship 8 myn mt of product/ year. Last year all of the PNW shipped 33 myn?the gulf shipped 51. The question of over capacity will come up again. Only 2 times in the last 12 years or so have the PNW exporters run at capacity, but Tom Williamson (President of Transportation Consultants in KC) says that if demand grows at the 5% rate projected by USDA additional capacity will be needed. That model has been examined at length before, and will continue to be debated. Ocean rates vs. rail rates also cannot be ignored.
***Didja Know: Some questions for US citizenship: Who is commander in Chief of the military? Who is the governor of your state now? What is the capital of your state? Who wrote the Declaration of Independence? When was the Constitution written? Name 3 of the original 13 colonies. During the cold war, what was the main concern of the US? Note; if you are 65 or older, you only need to study 20 of the 100 questions on the test?(these are some questions from the new test 10/1/08 applicants must get a score of at least 60%.
***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***