Duane Disque or Brian Peiler Jon Sperl or Bryce Olson
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 6/11/09
|
|
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn |
| ||
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
|
June |
6.12 |
|
8.13 |
.85 N |
6.87 |
.33 N |
110 |
169 |
|
July |
6.12 |
6.03 CNW |
8.13 |
.85 U |
6.87 |
.33 N |
110 |
|
|
|
August |
6.12 |
|
8.13 |
.85 U |
6.92 |
.28 U |
120 |
|
|
|
September |
6.17 |
6.32 CUW |
8.13 |
.85 U |
6.97 |
.33 U |
120 |
|
|
October |
6.22 |
|
8.17 |
.80 Z |
7.05 |
.25 Z |
|
|
|
November |
6.27 |
|
8.22 |
.85 Z |
7.10 |
.30 Z |
|
2009/ 178 |
|
December |
6.32 |
6.59 CZW |
8.27 |
.90 Z |
7.15 |
|
|
2010/ 178 |
|
N/C 2010 |
|
7.04 CUW |
7.83 |
.30 MUW |
7.32 |
.20 CNW |
|
2011/ 179 |
|
|
N/C 2011 |
|
7.10 CNW |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
**Club premium: Buyers Call! |
Prem/Disc |
+12/ -20 |
Prem/ Disc |
+10/ -20 |
Canola: |
.17/ lb n/c |
| ||
***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.
Crude is up again this morning. The target seems to be $75-80 we?ll see. The $$ is slightly stronger. Futures got whacked yesterday. They are up a little this morning as yesterday was probably a bit too far a bit too fast. Export sales reports were somewhat interesting. Corn sales totaled a bit over 33 myn bu (28 myn o/c and 5.9 myn n/c). The market will see this as neutral/ slightly bullish. It continues to rain in parts of Illinois/ IndianaBeans were amazing totally a ?2.2 myn bu on the week. Heavy cancellations from China. Market is unimpressed at nearby beans are up 14 anyway. Wheat sales were good, but not great. 13.8. We sold 3.6 myn DNS, 5 myn HRW, .8 SRW and 3.5 SWW. Last night Japan completed their weekly tender buying from US, Canada and Aussie.
Continued dry in Argie will result in their lowest wheat acreage in 100 years. Cattle are being trailed off to market. Bean acres are expected to surge to huge records beating old records by 20%. Up to 60% of the Argie farmland will be planted to beans this year. This is EXACTLY the opposite of what the Argie gov?t wanted to have happen?perhaps they should have just legislated rain rather than try to move farmers/ ranchers?You might remember that last year the Argie gov?t tried to increase export duties on soybeans that they regarded as ?a weed?. The increase failed, but the 35% duty remains. The fact is that it is so dry that beans are the best bet for the Argie growers. There are 20 registered exporters in Aussie. How long will it take to get that number to less than 10? 2 years? (We have 4 exporters in Portland).
What to make of these markets? There is still a lot of air under these markets. Although there do not appear to be any major weather problems in the world, it is still a bit early and most anything can happen. One thing that we must recognize though is that WITH the air under Chicago, and 25 to 27/ option month carry I don?t think its too early to start thinking about 2010 at all. Today with an even basis, using Chicago Sept futures you can get over $7...not too shabby, especially if its your worst sale of the year. Will $7 wheat pull acres from other crops? How many valley acres will get planted? The upcoming 6/30 USDA planted acreage report is soooo important. IF corn acres do end up at something like 83 myn acres carryouts of less than 1 byn bu for 2010 are very possible, implying $5.50 to $6 corn futures. IF acres end up 85 + myn acres then probably corn could end up at $4 or less. Big swings. Remember that the 3/30/09 report had 6.5 myn fewer ?principle acres? than the 3/30/08 report?will they show up? WHERE?
***Didja Know: May was the 3rd highest month ever for foreclosures up 18% vs. last year? Temp freeze on foreclosures ended in March. 1 out of every 398 financed homes have rec?d a notice. The 80/ 20 rule still works. 10 states account for 77% of all foreclosures. Nevada is highest at 1:64 homes
***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***