Thursday, July 31

PGG MARKET REPORT

by PGG Country on Thu 31 Jul 2008 09:30 AM PDT

Morrow County Grain Growers Pendleton Grain Growers

Duane Disque or John Ripple Jon Sperl

1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net

GOOD MORNING!!!

Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 7/31/08

	SWW	SRW	DNS		HRW		Barley	Corn
Month	Portland	*Chicago*	Portland	Basis	Portland	Basis	Portland	Cash Px	Basis
August	8.23		9.60	*.85 U*	9.11	.85 U	223	225
Sept	8.30	*7.97 U*	9.60	*.85 U*	9.11	.85 U	225
October	8.36		9.70	*.85 Z*	9.21	.70 Z	227
Nov	8.41		9.80	*.95 Z*	9.29	.78 Z		232
Dec	8.46	*8.22 Z*	9.90	*.1.05 Z*	9.31	.86 Z		232
January	8.51		9.90	*1.00 H*	9.45	.75 H
		*8.29 H*
N/C 2009	*7.11?*	*-1.50 CNW*	*8.94*	*Option Px*	*8.88*	*Option Px*		240
*LDP's*	-4.77		-5.71		-4.66		-1.77	-3.46
***Club premium: .15/ bu. N/C				*Canola*	*.265/ lb*

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

Sales reports were VERY strong for corn and wheat. Traders had hoped for something in the 23-35 myn bu range, and actual corn sales were 35. Wheat was also a very impressive 26.7 myn bu. Traders rewarded wheat (currently up 10), while trying to keep a lid on corn (down 5-7). Shipments on wheat are also way ahead of USDA projections. There are quite a few tenders/ give-aways working in the market right now. ND wheat tour rates the crop ‘good’ overall. Probably for the majority of the state, but the western ½ of ND and Montana will be very low yielding. When the dust settles from the combines and all the tix are added up, I know our yields will be lower than most folks had expected.

CFTC bill did NOT pass the House (White House said they would veto it anyway). Republicans want to open things up for more oil exploration/ development, Dems are standing in the way. A similar version in the Senate looks to be headed the same direction. Without a decent delivery mechanism, you can see the relationship between Chicago wheat futures and cash is not very strong anymore. So what does Chicago SRW futures represent?

The UK wheat production is up about 3 myn mt, but there needs to be an asterisk there. 50-80% of the wheat crop will be feed quality. Informa issued a 90 page report on the CWB. Mostly it details how the ‘promise’ of the Wheat Board (“Best value and prices for western Canadian growers”) falls far short of what the growers are actually receiving. The summary suggests that CWB growers could receive from up to $13.27/ mt MORE for Barley all the way to $47/ mt more for Durum. The FAS reports that Russia is closer to establishing a ‘State Owned Grain Trade Corp”. This would be very similar to old Communist era “Ministry of Grain Products”…or the AWB or CWB. Higher prices have hit the budding Russian grain industry hard, and they lack the resources to continue and are basically hoping for gov’t bailout/ buyout.

***Didja Know: “Those who trade Liberty for Security, end up with neither”

***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***

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Wednesday, July 30

PGG MARKET REPORT

by PGG Country on Wed 30 Jul 2008 09:50 AM PDT

Morrow County Grain Growers

Pendleton Grain Growers

Duane Disque Or John Ripple

Jon Sperl

1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221

1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (work), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net

GOOD MORNING!!

Below are the best indications available as of:

9:00

7/30/08

SWW

SRW

DNS

HRW

Barley

Corn

Month

Portland

Chicago

Portland

Basis

Portland

Basis

Portland

Cash Px

Basis

August

8.15

9.51

.85 U

9.05

.85 U

223

224

September

8.22

7.86 U

9.51

.85 U

9.05

.85 U

225

October

8.28

9.61

.70 Z

9.13

.70 U

November

8.33

9.71

.78 Z

9.21

.78 Z

233

December

8.38

8.10 Z

9.81

.86 Z

9.29

.86 Z

233

January

8.43

8.34 H

9.95

.75 H

9.39

.75 Z

N/C 2009

7.09 ?

-1.50 CNW

9.05

Option px

8.83

Option px

239

LDP's

-4.84

-5.74

-4.89

-1.92

-4.84

***Club premium: .15/ bu. N/C

MSTOS

CANOLA:

26.20

***NOTE: Corn bids vary depending on point of delivery. Please Call for Updates.

USDA says "NO" to penalty free early out option on CRP. This will be at least a little bit supportive for corn. We are already setting the stage for next years crop. CORN will HAVE to buy more acres for next year, either by paying enough to incent growers out of CRP or compete with other crops. I am not sure how the plan of ‘planting wheat and then double cropping with beans’ worked out. I guess we’ll need to wait till bean harvest. Early estimates are already calling for up to 3 myn FEWER SRW acres. One of the big problems here is convergence, namely that we haven’t had any lately. The House is looking at the CFTC bill, and this is one area that desperately needs to be addressed. Me thinks that they need to address the delivery mechanism. Things like: more delivery points, higher storage rates (perhaps double), higher premiums for delivery etc. We’ll just hafta wait and see what they come up with and then adjust our sails.

Overnight US sold another 6 myn bu of corn to Japan. TOS was for n/c which is also interesting in a number of ways. They are saying what they think about our markets (corn does look oversold today). Iran is likely to buy 3.6 myn bu from Kazakhstan.

***Didja Know: Crocodiles cannot stick out their tongues? A shrimps heart is in its head? Americans eat an estimated 17 acres of pizza each day. Donkeys will sink in quicksand, but mules won’t….about 14% of all statistics are made up on the spot, but only about 25% of people know that…..

***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***

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Tuesday, July 29

PGG MARKET REPORT

by PGG Country on Tue 29 Jul 2008 10:17 AM PDT

Morrow County Grain Growers Pendleton Grain Growers

Duane Disque or John Ripple Jon Sperl

1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net

GOOD MORNING!!!

Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 7/29/08

	SWW	SRW	DNS		HRW		Barley	Corn
Month	Portland	*Chicago*	Portland	Basis	Portland	Basis	Portland	Cash Px	Basis
August	8.15		9.43	*.80 U*	8.96	.80 U	223	217
Sept	8.22	*7.83*	9.43	*.80 U*	9.01	.85 U	225
October	8.26		9.53	*.80 Z*	9.10	.70 Z	227	226
Nov	8.33		9.69	*.95 Z*	9.18	.78 Z		228
Dec	8.38	*8.06*	9.79	*.1.05 Z*	9.28	.86 Z		228
January	8.43		9.89	*1.00 H*	9.35	.75 H
		*8.29 H*
N/C 2009	*7.06?*	*-1.50 CNW*	*9.00*	*Option Px*	*8.79*	*Option Px*		229
*LDP's*	-4.71		-5.77		-4.66		-1.77	-3.26
***Club premium: .15/ bu. N/C				*Canola*	*.265/ lb*

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

Inspection report from yesterday showed very strong numbers (although traders are largely ignoring them this morning). Wheat shipments tallied 21.8 myn bu. Corn was also strong at 39 myn bu. Beans were sharply lower overnight, and looked to drag everything down with them this morning, and that’s basically what we got. Beans were off .40 at one point (now down .28). Corn pushed down hard but is nearly back to break even. Wheat was bloodied up and has been a bit slower to recover. Last night Cargill sold 3.6 myn bu of wheat to Paki. This is one of those deals we will need to watch since Cargill is listed as a “US company” it was recorded as US sale, but having access in other parts of the world it may in fact be filled with ‘others’ wheat. Iraq bought Russian wheat for $9.26 FOB, and Egypt is in as well. Lower yields across the PNW are starting to be felt. We have a nice positive basis for the first time in recent memory.

Crop progress report showed only 59% of the corn silking as compared to 87% last year, and 81% on a 5 year. Only 7% of the crop is making dough compared to 22% last year, however the rating improved 1more % point in the G-Ex cat. Spring wheat conditions dropped another 3% points last week as well.