Lite deliveries and more rain for the corn belt has corn looking 3-5 stronger this morning. Wheats on the other hand are called down a like amount on news that Jordan booked 3.6 myn bu of Ukrainian wheat for LH June/ FH July, and rumors that Israel also bot Black Sea wheat. The German crop is in great shape and will likely be 15-16% bigger than last year (they are projecting 24 myn mt). The Argie farmers are still fussin/ discussin the bean tax. The Gov’t is sticking by their guns and not backing down, meaning the standoff will continue, and no beans will be shipped. That means more for the US nearby, but when the issue gets resolved, those beans WILL be shipped. Brazil bean harvest is about 93% complete (and an est. 67% are sold). They are expected to turn around and plant a record corn GMO corn crop. It will be interesting to see how their yields do on the first year with a big GMO program. Today they are projecting 17 myn mt (668 myn bu) of corn production or about 2x last year. Peter Mendelsohn is urging action in the WTO to get as many details ironed out while Bush is in office, clearly they are concerned about what the new administration might look.

US News: The Congress is still wrangling with the Farm Bill. Topics under discussion now are: Payment limits, AGI, and DP caps. It is hard to say how this will all shake out, but with all the attacks the our industry is under we would certainly be worse off with out the efforts of our industry organizations. After the first day of the tour (190 fields) yields are estimated 45.4 bpa vs. 40 bpa last year, and so far very little disease. Privates did report 11 myn bu of HRW sales to Iraq for ‘08-09

***Didja Know: For those keeping up with the ethanol vs. Food fight: Last year the US produced 2.54 byn MORE bu than in ‘06-07. Ethanol used less than half of the increase (1.050 byn bu). The balance went to Food, Feed, Seed and EXPORTS. The US is projecting a 350 myn bu INCREASE in exports in CORN! Plus an additional 366 myn bu of Wheat…so while there is concern of lack of food, the US exported 716 myn bu MORE of Wheat and Corn in ‘07-08 (USDA S&D’s). Just an effort to get the facts out there!

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