Right now grain futures are taking direction from the Specs/ Funds, and crude oil/ gold are the ‘leading indicators’. So we can’t really discuss wheat futures without talking about crude/ gold/ value of the $$. Crude oil at/ near a top? Some traders are thinking so. Overnight crude and gold down hard. $$ much stronger…translates into lower corn which will wash into the wheat pits. It is also worth mentioning that ‘typically’ corn slides lower from here into harvest.

Crop report yesterday pm showed that corn plantings are only 6% off of 5 year avg. (88% planted, last week we were 73%…5 yr avg is 94%). Emergence is behind, but that is no surprise. Report showed 52% emerged vs. 80% last year and 76% on 5 yr avg. Forecast for the corn belt is for warm/ dry mostly for the next 6-10 (no strong heat). Wheat is 64% headed vs. 76% on 5 yr avg. Overall wheat conditions improved last week (look for them to improve AGAIN next week). On the year we are 47% G-Ex (the Good cat improved 2%). FWIW Oregon is 18% G/ 2% Ex. Wash is 43% G/ 7% Ex. Idaho is 75% G/ 12% Ex.

First new crop HRW is being delivered to Fort Worth. Pro’s are in the 11.3 range. TW’s are 61-62. Sounds like Excellent quality wheat. USDA will announce that they will allow grazing/ haying on 24 myn CRP acres to help the cattle industry. There will be no penalty for CRP’ers. USDA expects that up to 18 myn tons of forage worth up to $1.2 byn.

German grain production ests are holding @47 myn mt which is up 6.3 myn mt from ’07. Ukrainian AG minister is welcoming an initiative that would allow them to ‘barter’ wheat for natural gas with Egypt. Aussie is expected to roll out a higher yielding ‘Feedlot’ wheat variety. Apparently it is a high yielding wheat acceptable/ designed for feed, but does not contain very good milling characteristics. Indonesia claims that their corn production will be up 24% vs. last year. Overnight Jordan bot Ukrainian wheat. There were 200,000 FARMER supporters at an Argie rally. The gov’t still hasn’t agreed to change their position on bean tariffs, resumption of a strike is still possible.

***Didja Know: Baboons can only throw underhanded…Scorpions not only have 8 legs, but also 8 eyes…At one time, it is thought India was an island…"The main danger in this world are people who want to change everything….or nothing"

***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***