Morrow County Grain Growers Pendleton Grain Growers
Duane Disque or John Ripple Jon Sperl
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 4/8/08
|
|
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn | |||
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
Basis |
April |
10.50 |
|
13.13 |
2.10 |
11.15 |
1.30 |
|
226 |
|
|
May |
10.50 |
9.24 CK |
13.23 |
2.20 |
11.15 |
1.30 |
|
|
|
|
June |
|
|
|
|
10.85 |
1.00 |
|
|
|
|
July |
9.00 |
9.37 CN |
11.67 |
.65 N |
10.35 |
.51 |
224 |
|
|
August |
9.05 |
|
11.05 |
.80 u |
10.39 |
.50 |
226 |
|
|
September |
9.15 |
9.54 CU |
11.13 |
.80 U |
10.46 |
.50 |
|
|
|
|
OND ‘08 |
+.09/ mo |
|
+.07/ mo |
|
|
|
|
226 |
|
N/C 2009 |
7.70? |
-1.50 CNW |
9.00 ? |
Option Px |
9.47? |
Option Px |
|
210 |
|
|
LDP's |
-7.06 |
|
-9.82 |
|
-6.30 |
|
-2.91 |
-3.53 |
|
|
***Club premium: .05/ bu. |
|
-2/ 1/4 |
-70/ ½ |
|
|
|
| ||
***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.
Early on this morning it looked like we might have a classical ‘turn-around Tuesday’, but as things settled in, futures are lower pretty much everywhere you look. Yesterday’s Inspection report did show strong shipments of 48.5 myn bu of corn and 23.9 myn bu of wheat. Obviously we are not seeing any cancellations/ or switches yet, which is very supportive. Corn futures are bumping against SEVERE overhead resistance, and it will likely take a major event (big weather?) to move this market much higher, but downside also appears somewhat limited till we get some decent progress on planting. On average 50% of the US corn is planted by May 1, and we have yet to really get much field work done. 1st of the weekly crop scores showed: Spring Wheat planting is right on pace (5% complete). Lowest rankings in winter wheat: Colorado with 33% P-VP and Tx with 47% P-VP. On the other end: Oregon 90% F-G, KS 70% F-G, and Neb 84% F-G…no rating for North Dakota. On crop scores we need to be careful to NOT compare to last year, since we went in, in GREAT shape, then had a series of weather calamities. We will have a new S&D on Wednesday morning, and the market is expecting only ‘minor’ tweaking of numbers. A lot of attention will be focused on Corn C/O. Last year we C/O 1.3 byn bu, and currently the USDA is projecting 1.41 byn in carryouts…but those numbers are dependant on 2.45 exports (today it looks like we should hit/ exceed those numbers) and 3.2 byn bu in ethanol use (that number is not so certain).
International: FAO sees world rice output up 1.8% (12 myn mt). Aussie is working on a FTA with Japan, hoping that with the AWB being gone, they may be able to set up some direct relationships with individual Japanese millers. Kazakhstan gov’t will decide wheat export bans/ or duties this week. Chinese Meterologist is predicting the worst drought in the last 5 years for Northern China (maybe their gov’t can do something about that). The Chinese gov’t is also struggling trying to keep farmers farming. They can make 3-4x as much money working in the cities, and obviously food production is a top priority for them. Last year production was about 15 myn mt LESS than USAGE (not demand).
***Didja Know: Top 4 Packers kill about 80% of US cattle. IF JBS Swift purchase goes through they will become #1 packer, and then the top 3 will kill 87-90% of US cattle. In Loudoun County Va, 1 of every 69 home is being foreclosed. Many are expen$ive home$. The nat’l ave is 1 out of 555.
***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only**