Wednesday, April 30

PGG MARKET REPORT

by PGG Country on Wed 30 Apr 2008 11:37 AM PDT

Morrow County Grain Growers

Pendleton Grain Growers

Duane Disque Or John Ripple

Jon Sperl

1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221

1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (work), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net

GOOD MORNING!!

Below are the best indications available as of:

9:00

4/30/08

SWW

SRW

DNS

HRW

Barley

Corn

Month

Portland

Chicago

Portland

Basis

Portland

Basis

Portland

Cash Px

Basis

May

7.90

11.39

2.00

10.80

1.40

229

June

8.00

10.19

.80

9.45

1.00

229

July

7.65

8.05 N

10.24

.85

9.10

.65

198

August

7.75

9.68

.95

9.16

.60

200

September

7.85

8.56 U

9.73

1.00

9.21

.65

202

October

7.95

9.85

1.10

9.29

.55

235

Nov/ Dec

. 10/ mo

8.38 Z

235

N/C 2009

6.98?

-1.50 CNW

8.95

Option px

8.56

Option px

217

LDP's

-4.71

-7.29

-5.04

-2.79

-3.53

***Club premium: .00/ bu.

-.02/ 1/4

-.70/ 1/2

***NOTE: Corn bids vary depending on point of delivery. Please Call for Updates.

Robert Zoellick (UN Food Program) reported in an article what needs to be heard more often, that export bans only make food problems worse. ‘Scare factor’ increases and hoarding starts. Aussie started loading the first post- Saddam wheat yesterday. Glencore sold 3 small cargoes (900m bu) for LH April/ FH May. Markets continue to send the "plant Corn" signal to growers. Beans need to be about 2.1-2.2 times higher than corn, this morning they are only 1.97. Agronomists estimate that in Illinois, growers MAY see a yield reduction of 1 bu/ acre for each day seeding past 5/5, and 1.5 bu/ day for each day past 5/15. Congress is poised to extend .54 ethanol import tax for another 2 years. Eventually the US ethanol industry needs to stand on its own feet without protection, but I’m not sure when we hit that point. There are other politics involved as usual as well. Congress is also talking about a .56/ gallon ethanol credit for ‘cellulosic’ ethanol. This .56 would be ON TOP of the ‘newly reduced’ (as presented in latest version of the Farm Bill) .45/ gallon blenders credit. USDA is still expecting about 3.2 byn bu of corn to be used to make 9 byn gallons of ethanol for ’08.

Aussie Bureau of Meterology says that La Nina is ‘officially’ gone, and that indicators have been reading nuetral for the last 2 weeks. They are not yet sure if there will be a shift toward El Nino, or back to La Nina. Weather has been a bit on the dry side in the North/ Eastern part of Aussie lately. Argie situation is still not settled, but the truckers said that they would side with the farmers. Farmers have promised no interruption in domestic delivery of ag products. The EU will vote on whether to accept RR beans in late May/ June. Most likely outcome will be dissension and arguments leading to ‘no decision’. Remember when this happens that approval becomes automatic.

***Didja Know: In the first round of the BEHT there were about 9.5 myn bu at an average px of 8.28 (lots of S. Plain locations…Texas, Kansas). Also about 102m bu SWW at $7.73. There are more Chickens than people in the world. Men tend to see better than women, but women tend to hear better than men (no surprise there).

***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***

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Tuesday, April 29

PGG MARKET REPORT

by PGG Country on Tue 29 Apr 2008 09:58 AM PDT

Morrow County Grain Growers Pendleton Grain Growers

Duane Disque or John Ripple Jon Sperl

1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net

GOOD MORNING!!!

Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 4/29/08

	SWW	SRW	DNS		HRW		Barley	Corn
Month	Portland	*Chicago*	Portland	Basis	Portland	Basis	Portland	Cash Px	Basis
May	Call		11.53		9.87	1.30		230
June	Call		11.53		9.97	1.40
July	7.80	*8.21 H*	10.33	*9.53 N*	9.17	.90
August	7.90		9.90		9.22	.55	198
Sept	8.00	*8.38 U*	9.90	*8.90 U*	9.30	.60	200
October	8.10		10.11		9.42	.55	202	236
*Nov/Dec*	*+.10/ mo*	*8.51 Z*	+.07/ mo	*9.01 Z*				236
N/C 2009	*7.05?*	*-1.50 CNW*	*8.80 ?*	*Option Px*	*8.73 ?*	*Option Px*		216
*LDP's*	-4.91		-7.65		-5.28		-2.91	-3.62
***Club premium: .05/ bu.				*-2/ 1/4*	-70/ ½

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

After yesterday’s run up, and SWW values remaining steady/ weak, wheat is now much more attractive in feed rations, the farther inland you go. Remember, as you look at relative values: there are 33.33 bu in a ton of wheat, and 35.7142 bu in a ton of corn. Mark your figures on a per/ ton px. Today, economics favor wheat over corn in many parts of SRW country, and places like S. Idaho.

Inspection report yesterday: Corn shipments 34.9 myn bu. We NEED to ave 47.3 myn bu the balance of the year to hit USDA, but have quite a bit of time on corn (Argie situation is helpful…see below). Wheat shipments were 18.9 myn bu. Wheat sales have been good, but actual shipments are lagging. To hit USDA we need to ship 150 myn bu over next 6 weeks (25 myn bu/ week). Effect of not hitting USDA #’s is that C/O will increase…even if sales are eventually lifted in N/C slots. Media has been on a frenzy about world grain prices, but since wheat is less than 50% of the winter highs, I wonder how long it will take for them to recognize that fact, or for pxes to start falling in the grocer. One other item that needs consideration; With all the hype of a food shortage, IF there actually is a food shortage, and now you could buy wheat at roughly 50% of last years values, why isn’t there any activity for N/C purchases??? Planting progress was less than desired on yesterdays report with only about 10% of all corn acres planted (Minn, Iowa, Ill, Indiana are all way behind). Spring wheat plantings are 34% vs. 28% lyr and 40% on 5 yr ave. Winter wheat ratings improved (moved 1% from Fair to Good…TINY increase). US crop now rated 46% G-Ex. Or is rated 26% G-Ex, Wa 63%, and Id 85%. Tomorrow is the FND for the May cak. Sen Kay Hutchinson wants Gov’t to FREEZE bio-fuel mandates. (She is from Texas, Tx is the largest oil producer in US), so it is either that, or she has bought into the latest media frenzy…We pointed out in the opening paragraph what CORN means to wheat, a sudden abundance of corn (due to reduced demand, means the floor for wheat, due to competition for feed, is lower).

Argie is talking about extending strike deadline for another 30 days. Meanwhile Brazil bought 4.2 myn bu of US HRW (can’t get it from Argie) for ’08 crop year. This is px supportive nearby, but eventually the Argie stocks will weigh on the world market.

***Didja Know: With NFL draft just over: During WWII (1943), so many players from the Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles were serving, that they combined the teams to become the ‘Steagles’?

***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***

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Monday, April 28

PGG MARKET REPORT

by PGG Country on Mon 28 Apr 2008 11:00 AM PDT

Morrow County Grain Growers Pendleton Grain Growers

Duane Disque or John Ripple Jon Sperl

1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net

GOOD MORNING!!!

Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 4/28/08

	SWW	SRW	DNS		HRW		Barley	Corn
Month	Portland	*Chicago*	Portland	Basis	Portland	Basis	Portland	Cash Px	Basis
May	Call		11.50		9.97	1.40		225
June	Call		11.50		9.57	1.00
July	7.90	*8.23 H*	10.25	*9.50 N*	9.12	.50
August	8.00		9.79		9.14	.47	198
Sept	8.10	*8.34 U*	9.86	*8.94 U*	9.22	.55	200
October	8.15		10.13		9.35	.55	202	230
*Nov/Dec*	*+.10/ mo*	*8.56 Z*	+.07/ mo	*9.07 Z*				230
N/C 2009	*7.00?*	*-1.50 CNW*	*8.60 ?*	*Option Px*	*8.55 ?*	*Option Px*		216
*LDP's*	-4.71		-7.42		-4.98		-2.91	-3.39
***Club premium: .05/ bu.				*-2/ 1/4*	-70/ ½

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

Congress has finally agreed ‘in principle’ on major portions of the Farm Bill. The conflict has been over how to increase spending in nutrition, without increasing taxes (looking for offsets). Major revisions now include