Morrow County Grain Growers Pendleton Grain Growers
Duane Disque or John Ripple Jon Sperl
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 3/4/08
|
|
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn | |||
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
Basis |
March |
12? |
|
19? |
4? |
13.08 |
1.78 |
238 |
215 |
|
|
April |
12 |
|
19 |
4.00 |
13.30 |
1.78 |
240 |
216 |
|
|
May |
12 |
10.93 CKW |
19 |
4.00 |
13.30 |
1.78 |
242 |
|
|
|
June |
|
|
14.43 |
2.00 |
12.40 |
|
244 |
|
|
JULY |
9.30 |
10.08 CNW |
13.13 |
.65 N |
11.50 |
.55 N |
212 |
|
|
AUGUST |
9.20 |
|
12.18 |
75 U |
11.40 |
.50 U |
214 |
|
|
|
OND ‘08 |
+.04/ mo |
10.20 CZW |
|
|
|
|
|
215 |
|
N/C 2009 |
8.80 |
-1.30 CNW |
8.60 |
Option Px |
9.76 |
Option Px |
|
207 |
|
|
LDP's |
-8.83 |
|
-14.02 |
|
-8.46 |
|
-3.07 |
-3.05 |
|
|
***Club premium: .05/ bu. |
|
-2/ 1/4 |
-7/ ½ |
|
|
|
| ||
***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.
Export inspections were solid for corn with 47 myn bu (45.3 is the pace needed to hit USDA). Wheat is bullish with another 16.3 myn bu shipped. (Thank you cards to Japan and Korea). Only 1.3 was SWW. Wheat sales for this year are running 147% vs. last year. It looks like end users are going to charge right up to new crop, or until stocks hit zero. We have already seen the exporters pass on biz because the old crop stocks are so thin. Lately it seems the specs attention has been directed toward corn, I would imagine at some point it will do just as wheat has done, and correct harshly. It has been interesting to watch O/C DNS basis. It has swung wildly. UH had been the leader in DNS bids. This morning o/c DNS bids are down $1.00 from yesterday!
Taiwan booked 2.8 myn bu of US wheat last night (only 390m bu of SWW…but it traded at $13.72), Japan is in tonite for 4.3 myn bu. What we know about the Japanese tender is: they are looking for 1.8 myn HRW, and 700m bu of Western White. They will also be checking on pxes from Canada and Aussie. Time of shipment for all is April/ May.
CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) says that they don’t expect any DOJ (Dept of Justice) interference on their plans to acquire the NYMEX. The DOJ approved a similar deal last year when the CME bought up the CBOT for $12 Byn. The argument is that while there are some areas of overlap that they are significantly different and should not be a problem. Anything that impacts/ potentially impacts our markets gets me interested, and this could impact our markets. Electronic trading was that common before the CME bought out the CBOT and now look where we are today…big changes indeed!
ABARE says they expect wheat exports for the coming year to double vs. last year. That would only require about 16 myn mt, but they are projecting a 25.95 myn mt crop…even though much of the winter wheat is still a few months from planting. The Aussie Bureau of meteorology says that pretty much all of the wheat producing areas have received average or better than average moisture, and after 2 bad droughts in a row, that alone is reason for optimism. With Brazil accepting GMO corn for production, the EU will lose its best source of NON GMO corn…they will either have to accept GMO, or pay HUMONGOUS premiums to get Non GMO. It will likely take until 2009 for Brazil to produce enough GMO seed to impact the market.
***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only**