Duane Disque or John Ripple Jon Sperl
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 3/1/08
|
|
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn | |||
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
Basis |
March |
12? |
|
21 |
4.85 ? |
13.58 |
1.78 |
238 |
216 |
|
|
April |
12 |
|
21.15 |
5.00 |
13.67 |
1.78 |
240 |
217 |
|
|
May |
12 |
11.27 CKW |
21.15 |
5.00 |
13.67 |
1.78 |
242 |
|
|
|
June |
|
|
|
|
12.69 |
|
244 |
|
|
JULY |
10 |
11.38 CNW |
14 |
.65 N |
11.74 |
.55 N |
212 |
|
|
AUGUST |
9.9 |
|
12.40 |
75 U |
11.77 |
.50 U |
214 |
|
|
|
OND ‘08 |
+.04/ mo |
10.63 CZW |
|
|
|
|
|
217 |
|
N/C 2009 |
8.84 |
-1.00 CNW |
8.60 |
Option Px |
9.98 |
Option Px |
|
206 |
|
|
LDP's |
-8.61 |
|
-14.62 |
|
-8.46 |
|
-3.07 |
-3.05 |
|
|
***Club premium: .05/ bu. |
|
-2/ 1/4 |
-7/ ½ |
|
|
|
| ||
***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.
For the most part futures opened higher everywhere, but Mpls for some reason this morning is chopping around, can’t make up its mind whether to go higher or lower in the May/ July slots. We will have .60 limits in all 3 exchanges today. $$$ is weaker again, with 3 year lows against the yen, while gold, silver and crude are higher. The MF Global situation is becoming a bit more clear as details are made more public. MF Global and CME run the CBOT so there is a bit of sensitivity there. The trader involved was supposed to have cumulative limits of 6500 caks (had over 15,000 when this was discovered). Now the CFTC is considering LARGER limits, allowing specs to have up to 11,000 caks in a delivery period vs. the 5,000 before, and allowing them up to 14,500 caks cumulative vs. current 6500. I suppose we have to remember that they get paid by the number of caks traded, but this will only make it even more difficult if not impossible for some of the traditional players to return…meaning the BOT will lose more of its original function. COT report had 1 interesting thing show up: Last week, Index funds increased their corn position by nearly 50 myn bu, and their % of long ownership went up a full 1.5%. CRC for corn for next year is now set at $5.40. Interesting tidbit about the FARM BILL one of the hang-ups has to do with LDP’s, the government now wants to REQUIRE loss of beneficial interest to claim LDP’s, which is a 180 from before when you had to PROVE beneficial interest.
We knew it was a matter of time, it is now March 3 and we have sighted the first “weather worry” for corn…due to late rains/ snows there is concern about getting field work done on time….we knew it was coming, just not this soon. Allendale posted their guesstimates: 86.4 myn corn acres, 62 myn wheat acres. I wonder if they actually trade/ position their own numbers…
Late rains in Argie will aid later corn, but early corn is seeing yields dip by as much as 36%, still Argie’s estimate of 21 mmt is very close to the USDA 21.5. Rabobank says Aussie has the early estimate on the Aussie crop of 26 mmt. It is very early, and again I wonder if they trade their own numbers….Over the weekend Egypt booked another 3.6 myn bu of Russian wheat (WITH the 40% export duty applied).
***Didja Know: According to UN WFP (United Nations World Food Program) the US provides a WHOPPING 40% of their entire budget? There is a town in the Sahara (Tidikelt) that once went 10 years without rain. Thomas Edison holds more patents than anyone: 1,093.
***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only**