Duane Disque or John Ripple Jon Sperl
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 3/20/08
|
|
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn | |||
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
Basis |
March |
9.90 |
|
12.75 |
1.55 N |
11.70 |
1.30 |
238 |
197 |
|
|
April |
10 |
|
12.90 |
1.65 N |
11.83 |
1.43 |
240 |
|
|
|
May |
10 |
10.01 CKW |
13.05 |
1.80 N |
11.88 |
1.48 |
242 |
|
|
|
June |
|
|
13.05 |
1.80 N |
11.38 |
1.10 |
224 |
|
|
JULY |
9.05 |
9.84 CNW |
11.80 |
.70 N |
10.73 |
.45 N |
226 |
|
|
AUGUST |
9.00 |
|
11.27 |
.85 U |
10.65 |
.40 U |
220 |
|
|
|
OND ‘08 |
+.04/ mo |
10.05 CZW |
|
|
|
|
|
197 |
|
N/C 2009 |
7.75 |
-2.10 CNW |
9.99 |
Option Px |
9.46 |
Option Px |
|
189.00 |
|
|
LDP's |
-7.21 |
|
-10.37 |
|
-8.66 |
|
-3.06 |
-2.86 |
|
|
***Club premium: .05/ bu. |
|
-2/ 1/4 |
-60/ ½ |
|
|
|
| ||
***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.
Over nite the $$ was stronger, crude fell below $100 and the markets will search for solid fundamental support. Somebody somewhere is LONG and WRONG. Futures are getting pounded again in what on the surface appears to be profit taking, but perhaps funds just need the cash to pay other margin calls. Their length in futures is enormous. You have to ask yourself, what will these markets look like when the funds start to leave. Until lately its mostly been a common theme: $$ weaker, futures stronger, at some point that will change. No markets tomorrow. CFTC will increase trade limits on corn to .30 and .70 for Beans effective 3/28. It is beginning to look like we could have the biggest SRW crop since 1989. Current best guess is 548 myn bu or about 200 myn (53%) bigger than last year. SWW is projected @ 209 myn bu (up 34 myn bu vs. last year, or up about 20%). PNW crop is currently being rated at 186 myn bu. Export Sales report showed “Good” numbers for corn just meeting expectations at 30 myn bu. Wheat barely managed a positive number with only .6 myn bu in sales: we had 700m bu DNS cancellations, 4.1 myn bu of HRW cancellations, 5.35 myn bu of SRW sales and only 100m bu of SWW sales. Also, there have been a lot of rains in the SE US, and it is slowing plantings/ field work some, but at this point of the game, it is not a big concern.
Russia says they expect wheat output could increase by 47-53% in the next 10 years. They would need to see an increase of yields from about 1.9 mt/ ha (metric ton/ hectare) to 2.6 to 2.8 mt/ ha. Egyptian president ordered their army to start making bread. Shortage of bread, high price of wheat are causing social unrest. The prez said “Bread queues” (people standing in line for bread) MUST disappear. Also Egypt passed on last nights tender citing “too high” of prices. You definitely feel that things are serious in the world around us, and they are just trying to eek by till new crop supplies. Can you imagine if wheat became “unavailable” due to an export ban or embargo? It is one thing for a country to be able to show they have ability to at least get wheat to provide to the population…it is another thing when it is unavailable…and the government cannot provide for them. It is still dry in Northern China, if it persists it will have a potential big impact on spring plantings. Aussie is off to a good start. Even though the USDA won’t est the Aussie crop till May, it won’t keep them from marking its development. With good or average weather, it appears a 26+ mmt crop is possible at this time (though there is a LOT of time tween now and harvest. By the end of 4/09 the EU must reveal ALL farm subsidy recipients and how much they got…by name/ address.
***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only**