Morrow County Grain Growers Pendleton Grain Growers
Duane Disque or John Ripple Jon Sperl
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 3/18/08
|
|
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn | |||
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
Basis |
March |
10? |
|
15.21 |
2.70? |
13.30 |
1.50 |
238 |
212 |
|
|
April |
10? |
|
15.31 |
2.80 N |
13.30 |
1.63 |
240 |
|
|
|
May |
10? |
11.33 CKW |
15.31 |
2.90 N |
13.40 |
1.72 |
242 |
|
|
|
June |
|
|
14.41 |
2.00 N |
12.67 |
1.20 |
224 |
|
|
JULY |
9.30 |
10.99 CNW |
13.01 |
.70 N |
11.72 |
.50 N |
226 |
|
|
AUGUST |
9.25 |
|
13.08 |
.75 U |
11.80 |
.40 U |
220 |
|
|
|
OND ‘08 |
+.04/ mo |
11.30 CZW |
|
|
|
|
|
210 |
|
N/C 2009 |
8.00 |
-2.10 CNW |
10.28 |
Option Px |
9.96 |
Option Px |
|
201.00 |
|
|
LDP's |
-7.21 |
|
-11.72 |
|
-8.66 |
|
-3.06 |
-3.25 |
|
|
***Club premium: .05/ bu. |
|
-2/ 1/4 |
-60/ ½ |
|
|
|
| ||
***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.
Futures were called lower on follow through from yesterdays washout. Gov’t has promised to be aggressive in stabilizing economy, expected to make another cut in interest rates by ½% to 1%. They have already cut interest rates 1 ¼% on the year. Bear Stearns was valued at $20 byn in January with stock prices of $170 vs. $236 myn yesterday and stock prices of $2. Asian markets were off 3.5% overnight. China reported that their inflation is running 8.7% with food leading the way @23.3%. I mention all of this, because these are the guys (investment/ index funds)that are carrying the big stick, and have chased everyone else to the sidelines, yet somehow we have to develop grain bids from these markets. Small wonder exporters use Basis Only bids, and many times only trade with firm offers, and during trading sessions. OI dropped yesterday, but still only a small amount. It only took the sale of 7,000 corn caks to move the market down the limit. They are still long nearly 2 byn bu. OI (Open interest) is still the best gauge I know of to measure the size/ volume of the index funds, and therefore one of the best predictors of their next move.
Cuba lifted farm supply ban. For the first time Cuban farmers can buy the goods they want/ need. Things we take for granted like hand tools, wire, boots, herbicides etc. The Cuban gov’t is trying to lessen its dependence on foreign food production. Also in a VERY rare (as in never seen before) move by the Chinese gov’t they announced that they have between 150-200 myn mt of grain reserves. (They may or may not), but the point they are trying to make is: We have enough food to feed our people, We are not beholden to buy foreign grain…at least not yet, and to calm public fear of running out of food. Also last night the EU rejected farm subsidy cuts…again. With the WTO set to try once again in May, there has been essentially no movement by the US or EU to address WTO concerns. Aussie (though not by generosity) has done away with the AWB. The farm subsidy issue in the EU does follow the 80/20 rule. 20% of the growers get 80% of the money, and they want to keep it that way. Meanwhile our own Farm Bill appears bogged down, and unless something happens soon, may miss the extended April deadline.
Picked up an article on National news about “wheat acres increasing in Oregon”. Interesting in a number of ways: By reading the article, you might assume that wheat is only raised in “the valley”, or else “the valley” represents all of Oregon…the other point of interest is how long it took for this article to even make the national stage…or that it made it at all…
***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only**