Morrow County Grain Growers                             Pendleton Grain Growers

             Duane Disque or John Ripple                                      Jon Sperl

             1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221                           1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

              or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell)  graingrowers@centurytel.net

                                                            GOOD MORNING!!!

            Below are the best indicated market bids as of:   9:00  on      3/12/08

 

SWW

SRW

                DNS

              HRW

  Barley

        Corn

Month

Portland

Chicago

Portland

Basis

Portland

Basis

Portland

Cash Px

Basis

March

 

 

15.73

2.75?

13.80

1.50

240

214

 

April

11.00

 

15.83

2.90 N

13.90

1.58

242

 

 

May

11.00

12.20 CKW

15.93

2.90 N

14.00

1.58

244

 

 

June

 

 

14.93

2.00 N

13.10

1.30

 

 

 

JULY

9.85

11.82 CNW

15.50

.65 N

13.35

.50 N

220

 

 

AUGUST

9.90

 

12.95

.70 U

12.30

.40 U

220

 

 

OND  ‘08

+.04/ mo

12.00  CZW

 

 

 

 

 

214

 

N/C 2009

8.00

-3.00 CNW

 

 Option Px

 

Option Px

 

208

 

LDP's

-7.71

 

-13.09

 

-9.77

 

-3.06

-3.31

 

***Club premium: .05/ bu.

 

 -2/ 1/4

 -60/  ½

 

 

 

 

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

            Early call is for corn to be up 4, beans 10-12 and wheats to be down 6 to 9. Market is beginning to focus almost exclusively on US acres right now. Informa will release their latest guesses later today. Right now it is estimated that as much as 10-15% of the mid-west acres are still “uncommitted”.  Growers will wait till the last days of trading, and then depending on markets/ weather will adjust accordingly. As it sits today, the average corn acre estimates are from 85 to 90 myn acres. To put it in perspective, with average abandonment, and 153 bpa trendline yields: 85 myn acres implies 11.9 byn bu (which is 400 myn bu short of needs, very price positive). 90 myn acres implies 12.6 byn bu which would give us 200 myn bu extra…obviously price negative. If we don’t consider what places like the EU may or may do (later in the report) 200 myn extra bu implies corn prices based on USAGE of about $170 or so. $ hit new lows again this morning before recovering slightly. 1 to 5 day forecast calls for heavy precip in the SE delta north all the way to Ill/ Indiana. Rivers will see flooding. Bush says he is willing to sign a 1 month extension to Farm Bill, but if Congress can’t get their act together by April, he recommends they extend it for another year and let the new admin deal with it. They have already been working on this a year and half, and it was suggested last fall that it was likely this would have to wait for the new admin/ congress to sort it out.

            International: Strategie Europe sees a surplus of 3-4 myn mt of wheat, this is an increase of 1.6 mmt more than last months est. They are suggesting wheat production, with normal weather could be +35 mmt greater than last year (they had severe flooding right at harvest). They estimate all grain production could be 1.2 byn bu greater. For wheat they are estimating +15% vs. last year or another 17 mmt (like finding another Aussie crop). Aussie gov’t is working on legis to ensure new exporters are financially sound and that there are laws in place to deal with anti-competitive practices. Germany will increase GMO corn production by 60% (it is still a relatively small area, but internal German controls make planting GMO a REAL hassle).

 

*** Sevareid’s Law: The chief cause of problems is solutions. Bangladesh is the most populated “non island” in the world with about 1970 people/ square mile..Finland has more islands than any other nation with 179,584 so numbered…

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND

***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only**