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Morrow County Grain Growers |
Pendleton Grain Growers |
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Duane Disque Or John Ripple |
Jon Sperl |
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1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 |
1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611 |
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or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (work), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net |
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GOOD MORNING!! |
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Below are the best indications available as of: |
9:00 |
2/6/08 |
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SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn | |||||||||||
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
Basis | |||||||
|
February |
13 |
17.34 |
3.70 |
12.50 |
1.60 |
250 |
206.40 |
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March |
13 |
17.36 |
3.72 |
12.52 |
1.62 |
251 |
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April |
13 |
17.38 |
3.74 |
12.54 |
1.64 |
252 |
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May |
13 |
10.49 CKW |
17.38 |
3.74 |
12.54 |
1.64 |
254 |
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June |
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JULY |
9.79 |
9.64 CNW |
12.80 |
.90 |
11.04 |
.55 |
205 |
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AUGUST |
9.80 |
9.71 CUW |
11.90 |
1.05 |
10.99 |
.50 |
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|
O N D |
+.04/ mo |
CZW |
205.60 |
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LDP's |
-11.63 |
-12.60 |
-7.13 |
-3.79 |
-2.76 |
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***Club premium: .00/ bu. |
-.02/ 1/4 |
-.05/ 1/2 |
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***
NOTE: Corn bids vary depending on point of delivery. Please Call for Updates. All the wheat futures/ all option months are locked limit up. Corn is currently up 12 to 18. It’s another GOOD day to be a farmer! Market still looks to curb demand by increasing price, but time and stocks are short. This market is very thin. Just when we thought we had an idea what wild volatility was, we heard this morning that on Feb 12 the MGEX will increase trading limits on DNS from .30 to .40. Evidently .60 swings in the market from highs to lows aren’t enough (we have had MULTIPLE times in Mpls that have seen limit moves BOTH ways the same day already this year). Can CBOT and KCBT be far behind? Fundamentally and technically the markets are strong. A word of caution though, since the market is so heavily influenced by spec money, what happens when they take profits/ or re-allocate? Downside will be just as steep if not steeper. This goes well with a story that suggests that at a large part of this volatility/ volume is due to electronic trading that insulates traders from "smelling the fear, seeing the greed" that came from trading face to face in the pits. Now its just a matter of pushing buttons.More information on the CCC release of SWW. As it happens the OWGL and a number of its officers are back in DC lobbying for various issues such as the farm bill, transportation issues etc. Space here does allow me to accurately tell you the value of these trips, but seeing what happens first hand left a definite impression on me. One thing I can tell you is that the OWGL is very well respected and received in DC. When we were back in DC, seeing others trying to gain access to various congressmen was common. The OWGL was always received and granted access, while many others never got past interns/ aides, and in some cases just waited in the hall for their turn for access to an aide. Anyway, USDA had not anticipated the market reaction, their "economists" said that market impact would be minimal, and in fact were also quite surprised to find out that our industry reps had as much knowledge as they did. The last time this happened (2002), the OWGL had an agreement with then Deputy Director Bert Farrish that these type of releases would NOT happen without some coordination with the marketplace. Obviously either that agreement was not communicated to the new directors, or was ignored.
Egypt booked 5.5 myn bu of mostly Kazi/ Russian wheat last night.
***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***