Morrow County Grain Growers                             Pendleton Grain Growers

             Duane Disque or John Ripple                                      Jon Sperl

             1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221                           1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

              or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell)  graingrowers@centurytel.net

                                                            GOOD MORNING!!!

            Below are the best indicated market bids as of:   9:00  on      2/25/08

 

SWW

SRW

                DNS

              HRW

  Barley

        Corn

Month

Portland

Chicago

Portland

Basis

Portland

Basis

Portland

Cash Px

Basis

February

12.50

 

21.40?

4.40?

13.70

1.95

222

209

 

March

12.55

 

21.40?

4.40?

13.70

1.97

224

211

 

April

12.60

 

21.40

4.40

13.72

1.99

224

 

 

May

12.65

 11.24CKW

21.40

4.40

13.72

1.99

226

 

 

JULY

9.70

10.46 CNW

14.50?

.65 N

11.70

.45 N

205

 

 

AUGUST

9.75

 

13.10

1.05 U

11.75

.50 U

208

 

 

OND  ‘08

+.04/ mo

10.59  CZW

 

 

 

 

 

210

 

N/C 2009

8.70

-.35  CNW

10.15

 +.40 MUW

9.92

+.25  KNW

 

203.60

 

LDP's

-9.21

 

-16.30

 

-7.86

 

-2.93

-2.91

 

***Club premium: .05/ bu.

 

 -2/ 1/4

 -7/  ½

 

 

 

 

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

            What a day already! Markets started stronger, then the top just blew completely off! Mpls March which is in delivery is up $3.85. It would be EXTREMELY painful to be hedged/ or short there! Ink isn’t even dry and bids are constantly being re-configured. One export offered NO BIDS on ANY WHEAT for ANY DELIVERY period. They feel there is less risk in just taking a cash position vs. trying to hedge in this market. The cost of money to hedge in these markets makes it EXTREMELY difficult to justify with anything we would normally associate as “normal” margins. MPLS DNS is locked limit up (.90) from May through all delivery periods. KC is limit up (.60) in K, N, U, Z (May, July, Sept, Dec). Chic is lagging only up .59 all delivery periods. Corn is up .13. A quick view of the COT report will certainly shake some confidence…between the Specs and Index funds they are LONG 3.3 byn bu of corn. Remember the dot com bubble, or housing bubble…in grain, somewhere down the road, there will be a day of reckoning. Investment money flowing into commodities is coming in big bunches right now.

            Inspection reports showed continued good/ strong shipments: Corn 46.6 myn bu, wheat 17.2 myn bu (4.3 myn bu of SWW),  Beans 23.2 myn bu (2x the amount needed to hit USDA projections). USDA economists were estimating corn acreages last week, and applied an estimated average yield of 154.9 bpa to the final tally…that would imply 12.8 byn bu corn crop. A large number, and big enough on the surface, to keep us from eating into any carryouts. The same economists also showed how with ‘normal’ weather the world could find itself with 40-60 myn mt MORE wheat production in 2008 than 2007. This is what we have been talking about for months in grower meetings. The USDA economists also said that type of production would imply $7 post harvest type wheat prices. Any one trying to secure spring wheat seed of any color/ variety knows what wheat acres will look like this spring….

            Collin Peterson said right now they would prefer to let the permanent farm bill kick in than extend the 2007. He feels the permanent bill will has some provisions that are so unpalatable that it would drive folks to the table to get something concrete done. The saga of the farm bill continues…Back when it was implemented it dealt primarily only with Farm issues. Over the years it has ballooned to the point where actual $$$ dealing with Farms or AG are such a tiny slice of the pie, that they really should re-name it, but I suppose the images generated and associated with “Farm” are much more politically palatable.

***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only**