Morrow County Grain Growers                             Pendleton Grain Growers

             Duane Disque or John Ripple                                      Jon Sperl

             1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221                           1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611

              or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell)  graingrowers@centurytel.net

                                                            GOOD MORNING!!!

            Below are the best indicated market bids as of:   9:00  on      1/28/08

 

SWW

SRW

                DNS

              HRW

  Barley

        Corn

Month

Portland

Chicago

Portland

Basis

Portland

Basis

Portland

Cash Px

Basis

January

15.65

 

14.55

2.25   K

11.30

1.30

265

197

 

February

15.80

 

14.61

2.29   K

11.35

1.35

267

 

 

March

15.85

9.50  CHW

14.65

2.33    K

11.40

1.40

269

 

 

April

15.85

 

14.69

2.37   K

11.45

1.45

270

 

 

May

15.90

9.67   CKW

14.69

2.37   K

11.50

1.50

 

 

 

JULY

9.40

8.91   CNW

12.21

.65  N

10.11

.60

200

195

 

AUGUST

9.28

9.03  CUW

11.62

1.00   U

10.12

.50

 

 

 

O N D  ‘08

+.04/ mo

8.90   CZW

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LDP's

-12.25

 

-10.02

 

-6.26

 

-3.39

-2.58

 

***Club premium: .05/ bu.

 

 -2/ 1/4

 -7/  ½

 

 

 

 

***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.

            Good rainfall was deemed px negative for corn (corn called down 5-7, but has recovered to only –2). Aussie also received some very good precip over the weekend, most of it up north, but they will gladly take whatever they can get, wherever they can get it at this stage. We got a some explanation on some of the ‘corn disappearance’ from the last S&D’s. COF (Cattle on Feed) numbers were up 1% vs. last month and the highest since 1996, marketings were at a low since 1996. Even with stronger grain prices, demand continues. Export inspections were bullish for all grains: Corn shipments tallied 61.1 myn bu, while wheat shipments were 24.4.

            Congressional Budget Office offered their estimate for 2008 corn acres at 87.8 myn acres. This would ‘back us into’ a production number of about 12.29 byn bu (using average abandonment and trendline yields). It ain’t enuf. The market will want to see at least 88.5 myn acres planted which with the ‘normal’ assumptions would give us 12.4 byn bu. 12.4 would NOT build ANY stocks, just keep us even. With new renewables ‘mandate’ of 9 byn gallons for 2008 it would require 3.2 byn bu of corn (which is already budgeted under current S&D’s for ’08. Ethanol margins have been blacker lately which means even less chance of slowing production of ethanol, consumption of corn. Plants can and will be willing to utilize corn at higher levels as margins remain black. Market is working and discretionary blending is up.

            Jordan will be in for 3.6 myn bu of wheat, and the Saudi government says that they will in fact turn more toward imported wheat, and conserve/ utilize scarce fresh water for other purposes. Yes, the US is currently seen as potentially a huge beneficiary of this move. COT report was bland, with nothing unusual jumping out. It is a little scary though, to see specs holding 3.4-3.6 byn bu worth of corn positions on paper, which amounts to more than 27% of our estimated corn production for 2008.

 

***Didja Know: Astronauts suits are said to weigh about 180 lbs on earth, but only 30 lbs on the moon…obviously nothing in outer space. A “large” cumulonimbus cloud may hold up to 1.5 myn gallons of water? Most of the water re-evaporates before ever touching ground, it is estimated that only about 20% ever actually hits the ground…

***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only**