Morrow County Grain Growers Pendleton Grain Growers
Duane Disque or John Ripple Jon Sperl
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 1/17/08
|
|
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn | |||
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
Basis |
|
January |
15.15 |
|
13.10 |
1.45 |
11.04 |
1.15 |
265 |
201 |
|
|
February |
15.20 |
|
13.20 |
1.55 |
11.14 |
1.25 |
267 |
|
|
|
March |
15.35 |
9.56 CHW |
13.30 |
1.60 |
11.24 |
1.35 |
269 |
|
|
|
April |
15.45 |
|
13.70 |
2.00 |
11.24 |
1.35 |
270 |
|
|
|
May |
15.55 |
9.69 CKW |
13.70 |
2.00 |
11.29 |
1.40 |
|
|
|
JULY |
9.10 |
8.76 CNW |
11.20 |
.65 |
10.03 |
.60 |
200 |
201 |
|
|
AUGUST |
9.00 |
8.82 CUW |
11.07 |
.90 |
10.05 |
.50 |
|
|
|
|
O N D ‘08 |
+.04/ mo |
8.97 CZW |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LDP's |
-11.51 |
|
-8.67 |
|
-7.10 |
|
-3.71 |
-2.63 |
|
|
***Club premium: .00/ bu. |
|
-2/ 1/4 |
-7/ ½ |
|
|
|
| ||
***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.
Markets got started out strong this morning with a VERY impressive export SALES report: Corn (traders hoped for a range of 63-82 myn bu) were rewarded with an amazing 93.3 myn bu! Strong weekly sales carried over to beans and wheat (12.9-16.5) actual was 14.9 myn bu. 3.9 myn bu was SWW. Over night Japan booked another 3.9 myn bu of US wheat and .7 myn Canadian, .7 Aussie. Egypt also completed a tender purchasing 17.9 myn bu. 11.4 myn was Russian/ Kazakhstan wheat. But they did book 6.6 myn bu o f US SRW. So US wheat is still moving, and demand is BRISK. Sharply lower $$ doesn’t hurt exports either. Mpls March traded a .60 range yesterday…trading BOTH limit DOWN and UP.
International News: USDA has the Argie corn crop at 22.5 myn mt. Rumblings from Argie is that, that may be a bit high. There is concern that frost in Nov did hurt corn some…could be cut to 20 mmt. Ukraine Ag minister received requests for 2x their export quota of 1.2 myn mt. Their industry reps say they would like to see the quota raised to 3.8-5 myn mt. The Ukraine Ag minister may be erring on the side of conservative, especially after seeing what is happening in Paki. Over night in Paki they banned any and all wheat exports (which should not be a surprise). Russia is expected to export 12.5 to 12.8 myn mt of wheat before 1/28 where export duties will make exporting wheat prohibitive. EU STRATEGIE grains is taking a conservative approach, and just using trendline yields is projecting cereal production for ’08 up another 1.4 myn mt…or roughly 14% LARGER than last year. And one other item; The FDA approved cloned animals for food use…the EU predictably said NO WAY.
Elwyn Taylor from Iowa State says there is a 33% chance of drought in the corn belt this year (La Nina). Statistically this is supported by: since 1950 we have had 15 similar growing seasons that compare to this year. 80% of the time when the Jan-Mar precip levels are below normal, April was too. The wheat conditions in the Southern Plains is tenuous, and if we experience a production problem there, it will push new crop values to new levels.
In our marketing meetings we have talked about ethanol production logistics and what does it mean? Also talked about ethanol ‘terminal’ elevators the other day. This is important because there are currently 137 plants in operation, 62 under const, 8 under expansion. Approx 100 of these plants can ship unit trains, however there are only 7 terminals that can receive units. Clearly there is a need, especially in a growing market for more capacity.
***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only**