Wednesday, December 31
PGG MARKET REPORT
by
PGG Country
on Wed 31 Dec 2008 09:03 AM PST
Morrow County Grain Growers Pendleton Grain Growers
Duane Disque or John Ripple Jon Sperl
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 12/31/08
|
|
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn |
|
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
|
January |
5.70 |
|
8.20 |
1.95 |
6.54 |
.40 |
104 |
162.49 |
|
February |
5.70 |
|
8.20 |
1.95 |
6.58 |
.44 |
106 |
|
|
|
March |
5.70 |
6.01 CHW |
8.20 |
1.95 |
6.62 |
.48 |
108 |
|
|
|
April |
5.55 |
|
8.20 |
1.95 |
|
|
108 |
|
|
May |
5.55 |
6.07 CKW |
8.20 |
1.95 |
|
|
|
|
|
June |
5.55 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2009/ 168 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2010/ 171 |
|
N/C 2009 |
5.80 |
-.60 CNW |
7.08 |
MU + 70 |
6.85 |
+.30 KUW |
|
2011/174 |
|
|
LDP's |
-2.50 |
|
-3.10 |
|
-2.65 |
|
-.61 |
-1.73 |
|
|
***Club premium: 1.35/ bu. |
|
Canola |
.132/ lb |
|
|
|
|
***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.
Fun Trivia: If you divide thirty by a half and add ten, what is the answer?
Answer: The answer is seventy. When dividing by fractions, you must invert and multiply.
HOPE YOU HAVE A SAFE AND HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!
Note: I am planning on being on vacation for the first 2 weeks of January. Please contact Duane, Jon or Bryce for updates. We will continue posting bids as ‘indication only’. Thanks ***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***
Wednesday, December 24
PGG MARKET REPORT
by
PGG Country
on Wed 24 Dec 2008 09:42 AM PST
Morrow County Grain Growers Pendleton Grain Growers
Duane Disque or John Ripple Jon Sperl
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 12/24/08
SWW
SRW
DNS
HRW
Barley
Corn
Month
Portland
Chicago
Portland
Basis
Portland
Basis
Portland
Cash Px
December 5.55
8.26
2.00
6.32
.35
104
151
January 5.55
8.26
2.00
6.37
.40
106
153
February
5.55
8.26
2.00
6.42
.45
108
March
5.55
5.79CHW
8.26
2.00
6.47
.50
108
April 5.55
8.26
May 5.55
5.71 CKW
2009/ 164
2010/ 168
N/C 2009 5.60
-.20 CNW
6.85
MU + 70
6.40
+20 KUW
2011/172
LDP's
-2.23
-2.71
-2.29
-.46
-1.37
***Club premium: 1.35/ bu.
Canola
.132/ lb
***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.
Markets close early today. No evening session. Nothing tomorrow! Then back to normal hours on Friday. Some of the exporters will not be offering bids on Friday, so I’m not sure what that will look like.
Crude is on the verge of setting new lows, Wheat futures are picking up some of yesterdays losses. Probably what is more impressive though is corn. Yesterday corn had a .10 late rally. Corn was called lower this morning, and certainly didn’t have any help from lower crude prices. This battle of wills continues to play out…will the technical rally out last and support a change in fundamentals, or will fundamentals eventually prevail? It is also good to see support in wheat futures while our sales have struggled. We got blanked on all the last tenders, but there is more business coming! Syria is still looking for wheat (they cancelled last time due to prices, but still need to buy). Iraq will be back after the first of the year. Paki will also be back for more…perhaps some US?
***Didja Know: The ‘sexigesmal’ system or “Base 60” math system was developed by ancient Sumerians (2000+ bc)? Why does it matter? Because an hour is made up of 60 minutes, and there are 60 seconds in a minute, also a circle has 360°. 2008 National Corn Growers had 19 entries that yielded more than 300 bpa 8.4 TON/ ACRE! Highest (A) Non-Irrigated: 294.9 bpa (8.25 ton / acre). AA Non-Irrigated 348.4 bpa (9.75 ton/ acre). Irrigated: 368.3 bpa (10.31 TON/ ACRE)!! Bethel, Maine now holds the record for the tallest snow man (actually a snowwoman) at over 110’ tall! The ‘eyelashes’ are made out of skiis, the ‘arms’ are 27’ tall evergreens…this thing is only 30’ shorter than the Statue of Liberty! Parts of Maine can receive over 100” of snow/ year.
HOPE YOU HAVE A MERRY CHRISTMAS AND HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!
***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only*** more »
Tuesday, December 23
PGG MARKET REPORT
by
PGG Country
on Tue 23 Dec 2008 09:17 AM PST
Morrow County Grain Growers Pendleton Grain Growers
Duane Disque or John Ripple Jon Sperl
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 12/23/08
|
|
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn |
|
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
|
December |
5.50 |
|
8.26 |
2.00 |
6.16 |
.35 |
104 |
147 |
|
January |
5.50 |
|
8.26 |
2.00 |
6.21 |
.40 |
106 |
148.50 |
|
|
February |
5.50 |
|
8.26 |
2.00 |
6.26 |
.45 |
108 |
|
|
|
March |
5.50 |
5.61CHW |
8.26 |
2.00 |
6.31 |
.50 |
108 |
|
|
April |
5.50 |
|
8.26 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
May |
5.50 |
5.71 CKW |
|
|
|
|
|
2009/ 159 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2010/ 163 |
|
N/C 2009 |
5.60 |
-.20 CNW |
6.85 |
MU + 70 |
6.40 |
+20 KUW |
|
2011/168 |
|
|
LDP's |
-2.23 |
|
-2.71 |
|
-2.29 |
|
-.46 |
-1.37 |
|
|
***Club premium: 1.35/ bu. |
|
Canola |
.132/ lb |
|
|
|
|
***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.
Markets, such as they are this morning are mixed. Extremely thin volumes being traded. Light volume can cause HUGE swings and lots of volatility, but its not expected this year. Chicago is down 6-9 cents, Mpls is down 5-7, KC is down a dime and corn is up a couple. The shipment report from yesterday showed that corn shipments tallied 31.7 myn bu, not a bad performance, although we need to be hitting 36-37 just to hit the revised numbers. Wheat shipments were only 9.8 myn bu. Bad news on Paki, it seems that 17.9 myn bu will be filled by Black Sea Wheat (Russian). They are still negotiating for additional volume…perhaps there is still hope for at least a sliver of the pie. Egypt was in and booked 3.6 myn bu of Russian wheat for $173/ mt ($4.71 FOB). The Illinois river is just about closed due to ice…if it wasn’t ice, the tariff (increased costs to battle the ice) would slow grain movement. Tariff has effectively raised rates 3-5 cents/ bu along the Illinois river. That is one less headache we have to deal with out here. Barge surcharges for fuel are one thing, but having to deal with a tariff rate that can, and often does range as high as 250% is quite another. There is talk about winterkill, and spring wheat seed is already trading at premium prices. Remember if you plant DNS, there will likely be $2.50 to $3 premium vs. SWW, but right now it looks like the market will penalize you heavily if you do not make protein…at least until the quality of the Montana/ North Dakota harvest is known.
Reduced export tariffs for Argie wheat (now at 23%) and corn (20%) kick in today. They left beans at 35%…remember last year when the Argie Gov’t was trying to increase export duties on beans, because of world demand? Looks like it’s the gov’t way of getting back at the growers. From reports I read, the beans are in storage and growers say they don’t care if they have to haul em to the dump…a classic battle of wills. The Argie gov’t has also announced that they will build 5 feedlots with a capacity of 200,000 head to finish calves before export. The government never has, never will be as efficient as an open market. The goal is to consume domestic grains to provide finished beef for local demand, and export.
HOPE YOU HAVE A MERRY CHRISTMAS AND HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!
***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***
Monday, December 22
PGG MARKET REPORT
by
PGG Country
on Mon 22 Dec 2008 09:33 AM PST
Morrow County Grain Growers Pendleton Grain Growers
Duane Disque or John Ripple Jon Sperl
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 12/22/08
|
|
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn |
|
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
|
December |
5.50 |
|
8.25 |
2.00 |
6.22 |
.35 |
104 |
147 |
|
January |
5.55 |
|
8.25 |
2.00 |
6.27 |
.40 |
106 |
148.50 |
|
|
February |
5.55 |
|
8.25 |
2.00 |
6.32 |
.45 |
108 |
|
|
|
March |
5.55 |
5.61CHW |
8.25 |
2.00 |
6.37 |
.50 |
108 |
|
|
April |
5.55 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
May |
|
5.71 CKW |
|
|
|
|
|
2009/ 159 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2010/ 162 |
|
N/C 2009 |
5.60 |
-.20 CNW |
6.85 |
MU + 70 |
6.21 |
+20 KUW |
|
2011/166 |
|
|
LDP's |
-2.23 |
|
-2.71 |
|
-2.29 |
|
-.46 |
-1.37 |
|
|
***Club premium: 1.35/ bu. |
|
Canola |
.132/ lb |
|
|
|
|
***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.
US $$ is down, crude down, Dow is down, so are futures (except beans). We have traded both sides of the slate, and the market is mostly neutral in ‘seasonally’ light trade. Goldman Sachs (one of the more prominent ETF (hedge funds) said that they expect the price of corn to rally .60 in the next 6 months. Any big move will have to start with the specs/ funds and the corn market is fundamentally bearish, with demand just not as strong as it needs to be to make the 2nd biggest US corn crop disappear. As indication, the COT report confirmed what we expected to see, the specs bot up 65 myn bu of Chicago wheat, 15 myn bu of KC and 276 myn bu of corn futures last week. One other aspect of all this activity is this; the index funds prefer to manage their positions as a % of open interest rather than an arbitrary number like being say 200 myn bu long. This is important because as the specs return, OI increases and allows for more participation from the funds. All this is TECHNICALLY friendly to the markets!
Over the weekend: Iraq did settle their tender, but ended up with all Canadian, Aussie and Romanian wheat at about $29/ mt discount to US wheat. Russia says that they will get more aggressive on exports to try to maintain internal prices ( I still shake my head sometimes at the 180° turnaround from their market approach last year). USDA announced that they will ‘give’ Paki 1.8 myn bu of wheat. Article only said ‘PNW’, and I am guessing SWW. Perhaps that’s the reason for Fridays unusual strength. No word yet on the ‘big’ Paki tender that has been circulating for some time. Cheapest offer was $207.50 del’d, maybe later today. Syria rejected all offers on their tender account of price.
USDA also announced that they will use prices from 2007 and 2008 for the new ACRE program. Here is what I know so far (please check with your FSA office). USDA has decided to use the 2 most current years prices. I can NOT find anywhere what that average price will be though. Sign up is till spring, once you sign up you are committed till 2012, no changing! Signing up also relieves you of 20% of DP payments and 30% of loan rates. Payout is based on 5 year State wide ave, and losses are based on STATE and FARM losses on 83.3% of program acres.
***Didja Know News: Idaho is the 3rd largest milk producing state? Behind 1 Cali, and 2 Wisconsin. Toyota will post first loss 70 years…they say next year will be worse. Japanese interest rates are at .1%. China cut rates for the 5th time since September… ***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***
Thursday, December 18
PGG MARKET REPORT
by
PGG Country
on Thu 18 Dec 2008 10:17 AM PST
Morrow County Grain Growers Pendleton Grain Growers
Duane Disque or John Ripple Jon Sperl
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 12/18/08
|
|
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn |
|
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
|
December |
5.30 |
|
8.20 |
2.00 |
6.13 |
.35 |
104 |
147 |
|
January |
5.34 |
|
8.20 |
2.00 |
6.18 |
.40 |
106 |
148.50 |
|
|
February |
5.38 |
|
8.20 |
2.00 |
6.23 |
.45 |
108 |
|
|
|
March |
5.38 |
5.57 CHW |
8.20 |
2.00 |
6.28 |
.50 |
108 |
|
|
April |
5.45 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
May |
5.50 |
5.70 CKW |
|
|
|
|
|
2009/ 160 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2010/ 165 |
|
N/C 2009 |
5.75 |
-.20 CNW |
6.85 |
MU + 70 |
6.21 |
+20 KUW |
|
2011/170 |
|
|
LDP's |
-2.07 |
|
-2.51 |
|
-1.89 |
|
-.46 |
-1.37 |
|
|
***Club premium: 1.35/ bu. |
|
Canola |
.132/ lb |
|
|
|
|
***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.
The US $$ is taking a beating again today. The $ has dropped over 10% since 11/10. $1 will buy you .69 Euro this morning. Crude is also sharply lower this morning trading just over $38 (this also following announcement of a HUGE production cut yesterday. This should help exports, but so far we haven’t seen any benefit, but most of the drop has happened in the last few days…so it is perhaps a bit early. Even so, you might think futures would show signs of liking the odds. Specs are mostly sitting, watching, waiting. Sales reports: Wheat: It was hoped we would see7.3 to 16.5 myn bu. Total for the week was 9.6. Not bad, but short of what we need. 2.8 DNS, 3.5 HRW, 1.9 SRW and 1.2 SWW. Overnite Japan did buy 1.5 myn US wheat (1.2 of SWW). They also booked .8 myn Aussie. Not a lot of volume, but for the most part its consistent. Corn: Range was 17.7 to 31.4 (very big range). Total sales were only 24.1…for those still keeping track we need AT LEAST 27 myn bu to hit the new LOWER USDA projections. Barclays released their guesstimates of 2009 corn acres: 84.5 myn acres. Do you remember the magic number from the other day? Assuming 153 bpa (this years ave yield), and 4 byn ethanol, 2 byn exports…the acres needed were 84.6. With estimated reductions in ethanol, exports…we can see a scenario where we would only need 77.5 myn acres.
After gov’t aid for car makers has failed. Chrysler says they will shut all plants for 1 month (apparently waiting for new congress). Chrysler says they need $7byn/ week. GM also announced plant closings…they said they need $11byn/ month. Ford will shut plants down as well. Now the auto makers NORMALLY would shut plants down for holidays anyway, this time they are just starting earlier, and perhaps for a longer time. Question has to be asked…If GM needs $11 byn/ month, and Chrysler needs $7 byn/ week…how long was $14 byn going to last? Stock market seems unfazed by all this. Probably it was already expected…Dow is up this morning.
Very dry in South Africa continues, their corn exchange was up the limit overnite. PAKI, there I said it again…yes they are expected to tender Saturday (your guess is as good as mine). The USDA did sign an agreement to donate 1.8 myn bu of wheat for food aid to Paki. USDA also announced they would spend $212 myn to buy food for donation. Iran did book 2 myn SWW thru a 3rd party. We should hear results from Syrian, Iraqi and Moroccan tenders anytime.
***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***
Tuesday, December 16
PGG MARKET REPORT
by
PGG Country
on Tue 16 Dec 2008 10:07 AM PST
Morrow County Grain Growers Pendleton Grain Growers
Duane Disque or John Ripple Jon Sperl
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 12/16/08
|
|
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn |
|
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
|
December |
5.07 |
|
8.11 |
2.10 |
5.99 |
.47 |
104 |
149.50 |
|
January |
5.11 |
|
8.11 |
2.10 |
6.04 |
.50 |
106 |
150.50 |
|
|
February |
5.15 |
|
8.11 |
2.10 |
6.09 |
.53 |
108 |
|
|
|
March |
5.20 |
5.39 CHW |
8.11 |
2.10 |
6.14 |
.53 |
108 |
|
|
April |
5.20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
May |
|
5.53 CKW |
|
|
|
|
|
2009/ 161 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2010/ 161 |
|
N/C 2009 |
5.55 |
-.20 CNW |
6.85 |
MU + 70 |
6.21 |
+20 KUW |
|
2011/162 |
|
|
LDP's |
-1.97 |
|
-2.51 |
|
-1.89 |
|
-.46 |
-1.37 |
|
|
***Club premium: 1.00/ bu. |
|
Canola |
.132/ lb |
|
|
|
|
***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.
The market is fully expecting the Fed to cut interest rates another ½%. We are nearly at zero, so there can’t be much more cuts, unless the Fed starts giving money away…oh wait, they already have! The upshot of this is that the value of the $$ got hammered once again, which should be helpful for grain exports…but may take some time. Inspection reports from yesterday showed that corn shipments only tallied 29.3 myn bu missing the new LOWER revised USDA number by about 9 myn bu. Bean sales remain very strong (Argie not competing thanks to gov’t intervention there). Wheat was just off the mark with 12.3 myn bu shipped vs. 14.1 needed to maintain pace. Even though the fundamentals are bearish corn, the specs continue to show support for corn futures, which are up more than .40 since last Thursday’s low.
AWB completed their first shipment under the new rules, shipping 1.6 myn bu to Bahrain. Middle East countries are looking to spend perhaps Byns of $$ on WA (Western Aussie) farm ground. After 2 years of drought, and recent economic upheaval, its probably about as cheap as its gonna get. It also makes sense from the standpoint of better control over production. We have seen Chinese interest in Brazil before, so the idea of these countries trying to buy some productive farm land is not new. We actually had a similar situation here in Morrow County with a South Korean company. That one didn’t end well.
Since ‘the market’ seems to be concerned about corn acres for next year…lets do a little exercise. How many acres will the US need to plant? Assumptions: Last years yield, average abandonment. Lets also assume that the ethanol industry/ economy will recover to the point where we will use the same amount of corn as WAS projected for this year (4 byn bu, not the revised number of 3.7 byn bu) we will also assume the $$ stays weak and we hit export projections of say 2.0 byn bu (USDA currently projecting 1.8). So demand side is: Feed/ residual of 5.3 byn, Food/ Seed/ Industrial is 5.1 (4 byn ethanol), and exports of 2 byn. We need 12.4 byn production. We will start with 1.47, and want to end with AT LEAST 1 byn bu. So will need about 12 byn bu production. The USDA says we averaged 153 ish yield this year, which equals 78.4 myn acres. Normal abandonment is about 8%. So the US will need to plant about 84.6 myn acres. What’s it mean? Not much…we are too far away to really accurately guess usage. It does seem highly likely that however the spring develops, it will take longer to get the crop in due to ‘hangover from ‘08’. But as we mentioned yesterday, today the futures ‘favor corn plantings’. WHAT IF exports were only 1.5 byn bu, and ethanol usage 3.5? We would only need 77.7 myn planted acres…so you can see the impact of $$ and ethanol usage… ***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***
Monday, December 15
PGG MARKET REPORT
by
PGG Country
on Mon 15 Dec 2008 10:32 AM PST
Morrow County Grain Growers Pendleton Grain Growers
Duane Disque or John Ripple Jon Sperl
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 12/15/08
|
|
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn |
|
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
|
December |
5.07 |
|
8.08 |
2.10 |
5.95 |
.47 |
104 |
147 |
|
January |
5.11 |
|
8.08 |
2.10 |
6 |
.50 |
106 |
147 |
|
|
February |
5.15 |
|
8.08 |
2.10 |
6.03 |
.53 |
108 |
|
|
|
March |
5.20 |
5.27 CHW |
8.08 |
2.10 |
6.03 |
.53 |
108 |
|
|
April |
5.20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
May |
|
5.47 CKW |
|
|
|
|
|
2009/ 160 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2010/ 160 |
|
N/C 2009 |
5.45 |
-.20 CNW |
6.83 |
MU + 70 |
5.85 |
+20 KUW |
|
2011/162 |
|
|
LDP's |
-1.90 |
|
-2.52 |
|
-1.90 |
|
-.46 |
-1.14 |
|
|
***Club premium: 1.00/ bu. |
|
Canola |
.132/ lb |
|
|
|
|
***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.
US $$ fell to the lowest level since 10/20, crude is up…are traders getting aggressive and willing to spec on riskier investments (commodities)? COT report showed they bot quite a chunk of corn last week. Lets talk about last weeks S&D’s: After increasing corn c/o’s by 350 myn bu, the market traded UP not down. Increasing c/o’s by 350 equals about 2.5 myn acres (more on this later). Also a bit of surprise is that wheat used for seed is down 2 myn bu (down 6 myn bu vs. last year). You would have thought with CRC wheat acres would be up, WAY UP. Maybe there was more opportunity missed than we thought. Only class of wheat I can really see a decline in is SRW, which was way up last year. One other nugget that may have been missed, is that the USDA projected corn prices -.40 lower for 2009. Informa says that they see bean acres up 5.6 myn acres. They also see corn acres down 3.6 myn acres vs. last year. For discussion sake lets say that’s a good number. IF ethanol plants run without any further reduction (doubtful) and there are no other cuts to exports…essentially the market would need to find about 1.1 myn acres in order to ‘balance the books’. Most in the trade believe that we will need to reduce corn used for ethanol by another 100-200 myn bu. By the way, the corn/ bean ratio for new crop is 2.05: 1 (where bean futures are 2.05x higher than corn). As a rule of thumb, corn provides a better return up to 2.2 to 2.3:1.
Aussie was expecting to export up to 10.6 myn mt, that number now seems in doubt. As rains continue to slow harvest, quality losses are mounting. It is now being estimated that they may lose up to 2.8 myn mt of high quality wheat due to rains.They are now reporting a ‘suspicious’ “pink mold” on barley, particularly in NSW…they got another 2” (50 mm) over the weekend. It is believed that the pink mold is some sort of fusarium…but no one is for sure. It remained dry in Brazil and Argie over the weekend. Brazil says 92% of beans are planted. Russian Gov’t says that they will provide loans for grain purchases. They are aggressively trying to maintain export pace.
***Didja Know: Fish that swims the fastest is the sailfish…up to 68 mph. Beavers can swim up to ½ mile under water on one breath of air… ***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***
Friday, December 12
PGG MARKET REPORT
by
PGG Country
on Fri 12 Dec 2008 08:38 AM PST
Morrow County Grain Growers Pendleton Grain Growers
Duane Disque or John Ripple Jon Sperl
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 12/12/08
|
|
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn |
|
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
|
December |
4.85 |
|
7.81 |
2.00 |
5.79 |
.45 |
104 |
133 |
|
January |
4.95 |
|
7.81 |
2.00 |
5.84 |
.50 |
106 |
135 |
|
|
February |
4.97 |
|
7.81 |
2.00 |
5.89 |
.55 |
108 |
|
|
|
March |
4.99 |
4.96 CHW |
7.81 |
2.00 |
5.94 |
.60 |
108 |
|
|
April |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
May |
|
5.20 CKW |
|
|
|
|
|
2009/ 146 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2010/ 154 |
|
N/C 2009 |
5.35 |
-.20 CNW |
6.62 |
MU + 70 |
5.85 |
+20 KUW |
|
2011/156 |
|
|
LDP's |
-1.76 |
|
-2.80 |
|
-1.90 |
|
-.46 |
-1.14 |
|
|
***Club premium: 1.00/ bu. |
|
Canola |
.132/ lb |
|
|
|
|
***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.
Fun Trivia: Little Ryan was bragging about his school’s hockey team. “In the last game we played, we managed to win without one man getting a goal.” Since the final score was 3 to 1. how was this possible?
Answer: It was a girl’s hockey team.
***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***
Thursday, December 11
PGG MARKET REPORT
by
PGG Country
on Thu 11 Dec 2008 08:40 AM PST
Morrow County Grain Growers Pendleton Grain Growers
Duane Disque or John Ripple Jon Sperl
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 12/11/08
|
|
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn |
|
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
|
December |
5.05 |
|
7.90 |
2.00 |
5.77 |
.45 |
104 |
132 |
|
January |
5.10 |
|
7.90 |
2.00 |
5.82 |
.50 |
106 |
134 |
|
|
February |
5.15 |
|
7.90 |
2.00 |
5.87 |
.55 |
108 |
|
|
|
March |
5.17 |
5.10 CHW |
7.90 |
2.00 |
5.92 |
.60 |
108 |
|
|
April |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
May |
|
5.20 CKW |
|
|
|
|
|
2009/ 146 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2010/ 150 |
|
N/C 2009 |
5.37 |
-.20 CNW |
6.68 |
MU + 70 |
5.85 |
+20 KUW |
|
2011/152 |
|
|
LDP's |
-1.75 |
|
-2.82 |
|
-1.85 |
|
-.45 |
-1.09 |
|
|
***Club premium: 1.00/ bu. |
|
Canola |
.132/ lb |
|
|
|
|
***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.
Fun Trivia: Dee Septor, the famous magician, is standing on a concrete floor holding a raw egg in his outstretched hand. Without the aid of any objects, he is able to drop the egg two meters without breaking its shell. How does he accomplish this feat?
Answer: Dee Septor simply holds the egg higher than two meters from the floor before he releases it. The first two meters it falls it won’t break.
***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***
Wednesday, December 10
PGG MARKET REPORT
by
PGG Country
on Wed 10 Dec 2008 08:40 AM PST
Morrow County Grain Growers Pendleton Grain Growers
Duane Disque or John Ripple Jon Sperl
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 12/10/08
|
|
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn |
|
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
|
December |
4.85 |
|
7.79 |
2.00 |
5.70 |
.45 |
104 |
128 |
|
January |
4.90 |
|
7.79 |
2.00 |
5.75 |
.50 |
106 |
130 |
|
|
February |
4.95 |
|
7.79 |
2.00 |
5.80 |
.55 |
108 |
|
|
|
March |
4.98 |
5.01 CHW |
7.79 |
2.00 |
5.85 |
.60 |
108 |
|
|
April |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
May |
|
5.02 CKW |
|
|
|
|
|
2009/ 143 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2010/ 147 |
|
N/C 2009 |
5.18 |
-.20 CNW |
6.47 |
MU + 70 |
5.85 |
+20 KUW |
|
2011/148 |
|
|
LDP's |
-1.63 |
|
-2.45 |
|
-1.69 |
|
-.45 |
-.95 |
|
|
***Club premium: 1.00/ bu. |
|
Canola |
.132/ lb |
|
|
|
|
***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.
Fun Trivia: There is a town in Northern Ontario where 5% of all the people living in town have unlisted phone numbers. If you selected 100 names at random from the town’s phone directory, on average, how many of these people selected would have unlisted phone numbers?
Answer: The answer of course is zero. You will not find unlisted phone numbers in a phone directory.
***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only***
Tuesday, December 9
PGG MARKET REPORT
by
PGG Country
on Tue 09 Dec 2008 10:05 AM PST
Morrow County Grain Growers Pendleton Grain Growers
Duane Disque or John Ripple Jon Sperl
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 12/9/08
|
