Morrow County Grain Growers Pendleton Grain Growers
Duane Disque or John Ripple Jon Sperl
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 12/6/07
|
|
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn | |||
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
Basis |
|
December |
11.75 |
|
10.97 |
1.32 |
10.22 |
1.10 |
Please |
164 |
|
|
January |
11.95 |
|
11.04 |
1.37 |
10.22 |
1.15 |
Call |
|
|
|
February |
12 |
|
11.10 |
1.45 |
10.32 |
1.20 |
For |
|
|
|
March |
12.05 |
8.87 CHW |
11.15 |
1.50 |
10.35 |
1.25 |
Current |
|
|
|
April |
12.10 |
|
11.18 |
|
|
|
Bids |
|
|
JULY |
7.85 |
7.73 CNW |
9.35 |
.60 N |
8.47 |
.55 N |
|
|
|
|
AUGUST |
7.80 |
7.80 CUW |
9.02 |
.90 U |
8.43 |
.50 U |
|
|
|
|
O N D ‘08 |
|
7.84 CZW |
|
|
|
|
|
166.10 |
|
|
LDP's |
-8.60 |
|
-6.81 |
|
-5.70 |
|
-3.07 |
-1.73 |
|
|
***Club premium: .00/ bu. |
|
-2/ 1/4 |
-7/ ½ |
|
|
|
| ||
***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.
Futures were called lower on profit taking/ consolidation. As we get closer to year end, many traders will be trying to get accounts in line. Sales reports continued to be very strong. Corn sales were expected to fall 43-59 myn bu. Actual was 41.6 myn bu. Although we are only 13 weeks into the corn year, we are WAY ahead of USDA corn export sales projections (nearly double). Wheat sales were expected to hit 11-18.4 myn bu, and fell at 13.5 myn bu. Interestingly enough we had 4.8 of those were for NEW CROP. We are now at the half way point in the wheat marketing year, and would ONLY need to average 4.4 myn bu the balance of the year to hit USDA. Overnite Japan bot 5.5 myn US wheat, we missed on the Egyptian biz (but that should have surprised NO ONE). It would actually have been a surprise to connect on the Egypt biz. Russia sold it, as it should have, but TOS was for Dec 25- Jan 10. VERY CLOSE! This should signal to the market that Egypt does NOT have any coverage into the deferreds. Russia is still expected to increase export duties in January, which may VERY likely push some Egyptian biz into our laps.
So it looks like Aussie will certainly have a bigger crop than last year. The last estimate for this year was 12.7, vs. last years 9.6. So conventional thinking would hold that, well they will have more to export. Not true. Their export sales will actually DROP vs. last year. Last year they still had large carryovers, and used them to meet cak’d sales. This year there are NO carryovers. They NEED at least 7 myn mt to meet domestic demand. That means only about 5-5.7 myn mt available for export. Last year they exported over 7 mmt. Argie is delaying new crop wheat shipments by 15 days, as harvest is just coming on line.
Remember the energy bill we talked about the other day? House is set to vote on it today. That would increase CAFÉ standards to 35 mpg and required 36 byn gallons of ‘bio-fuels’ to replace gasoline. Breeders continue to work hard on true drought tolerant GMO corn. There is about 10 myn acres planted to sorghum that would/ could be planted to corn except for a shortage of water. Even an incremental yield increase in corn would be HUGE for production shifts.
***Didja Know: Fishing is the biggest participant sport in the world? Boxing didn’t become ‘legal’ until 1901? The names of all the continents end with the same letter that they start with?
***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only**