Morrow County Grain Growers Pendleton Grain Growers
Duane Disque or John Ripple Jon Sperl
1-800-452-7396 or 541-989-8221 1-800-422-7611 or 541-276-7611
or Dan Steiner 481-6614 (office), 571-3798 (cell) graingrowers@centurytel.net
GOOD MORNING!!!
Below are the best indicated market bids as of: 9:00 on 12/17/07
|
|
SWW |
SRW |
DNS |
HRW |
Barley |
Corn | |||
|
Month |
Portland |
Chicago |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Basis |
Portland |
Cash Px |
Basis |
|
December |
12.50 |
|
11.90 |
1.30 |
10.95 |
1.10 |
Please |
172.85 |
|
|
January |
12.70 |
|
12.02 |
1.36 |
11.05 |
1.10 |
Call |
|
|
|
February |
12.90 |
|
12.11 |
1.45 |
11.15 |
1.20 |
For |
|
|
|
March |
12.95 |
9.77 CHW |
12.16 |
1.50 |
11.20 |
1.25 |
Current |
|
|
|
April |
13.05 |
|
|
|
11.28 |
|
Bids |
|
|
JULY |
8 |
7.66 CNW |
10.55 |
.60 |
8.52 |
.55 N |
|
|
|
|
AUGUST |
7.90 |
7.74 CUW |
9.21 |
.90 |
8.47 |
.50 U |
|
|
|
|
O N D ‘08 |
+.03/ bu |
7.91 CZW |
|
|
|
|
|
172 |
|
|
LDP's |
-9.21!!! |
|
-7.60 |
|
-6.38 |
|
-3.18 |
-1.94 |
|
|
***Club premium: .00/ bu. |
|
-2/ 1/4 |
-7/ ½ |
|
|
|
| ||
***NOTE: Corn values vary depending on delivery location PLEASE call for updates.
Though the futures were viewed as ‘overbought’ last week, the early call was for much stronger open. Nearby Chicago is a bit higher, everything else is weaker on profit taking. The inspection report showed strong, solid numbers in corn and wheat of 46.5 myn bu and 19.4 for wheat, beans on the other hand were incredible with 35.6 myn bu shipped. Farm Bill finally passed the Senate, with numerous amendments. One of those amendments would grant the CFTC oversight on the mostly ‘unregulated’ electronic energy trading. The Senate also approved an increased RFS (renewable fuel standard)…36 byn gallons by 2022. Bill calls for 9 byn gallons by 2008 (we are already there). And 15.2 byn gallons by 2012. With the Ethanol plants currently running, and if those under construction/ expansion (to be complete by end of 2008), it is estimated that we have about 13.5-14 byn gallon capacity right now.
Market is still talking about running out of wheat, and I read the first mention of grain embargo in an article this morning, although it is still highly unlikely at this time…but it was mentioned. India only received 12 myn bu worth of offers on their tender. There is talk that perhaps the frost in Argie was colder/ longer and did more damage than originally thought, if it is so, we will find out shortly. Also rain has finally arrived in Aussie in time to slow harvest (see maps).
Informa economics released a report last week estimating that corn acres planted will be down about 6%, but farmers will still plant 87.4 myn acres. Some quick figuring: that implies about a 12 byn bu crop (150 bpa average). With this years ESTIMATED carryout of 1.8 byn bu gives us 13.8 byn bu. Total usage should be about 12.8 byn bu…leaving us with 1byn bu carryout…pretty tight considering the amount of usage, and there are A LOT of things that must go right for that to happen. They also released some estimated plantings for wheat, but there may be a typo or something on the report. The report said acres are up to 64.5 myn acres, which is only up about 4 myn acres from this year…that isn’t anywhere CLOSE to the USDA numbers on their S&D’s. USDA is not scheduled to release any more acreage numbers till March 31.
UK’s chief scientist says GM crops SHOULD be allowed in Britain. He said “The fact that GMO crops have been grown for a very long time in America, and there hasn’t been ANY litigation, in what is a very litigious society indicates that they are very safe”.
***All bids are subject to change, please call for CONFIRMATION of prices. All information in this letter is from sources deemed reliable, and is for informational purposes only**